MSEAS Probabilistic Forecasts of LC Separation (Issued 22 Jun 2025)

This MIT-MSEAS PE ensemble forecast contains 100 realizations. The contour lines shown correspond to a SSH value, de-tided and de-meaned over the region north of 18°N and west of 81°W, of 17cm.

• On June 22, 11 realizations show LCE separation, 89 show no LCE separation
• On June 25, 4 realizations show LCE separation, 96 show no LCE separation
• On June 28, 0 realizations show LCE separation, 100 show no LCE separation

Date	Number of separations	All separated realizations	All unseparated realizations	Example separated realization	Example unseparated realization
20250622	11
20250625	4
20250628	0			N/A

LC curves of all realizations on June 22, 2025