MSEAS Probabilistic Forecasts of LC Separation (Issued 29 Jun 2025)

This MIT-MSEAS PE ensemble forecast contains 195 realizations. The contour lines shown correspond to a SSH value, de-tided and de-meaned over the region north of 18°N and west of 81°W, of 17cm.

• On June 29, 81 realizations show LCE separation, 114 show no LCE separation
• On July 2, 54 realizations show LCE separation, 141 show no LCE separation
• On July 5, 2 realizations show LCE separation, 193 show no LCE separation

Date	Number of separations	All separated realizations	All unseparated realizations	Example separated realization	Example unseparated realization
20250629	81
20250702	54
20250705	2