MSEAS Forecast Forward Flowmaps for 28 May 0000Z to 12 Jun 0000Z 2025, Issued 30 May 2025

Shown are forward flowmaps in the Gulf region during the period May 28 - June 12, 2025, with a focus on two cyclonic Loop Current (LC) Frontal Eddies (FE). We first compute the 3D forward flowmaps for different time windows (0, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 days) for the whole Gulf domain. Forward flowmaps link the initial location of a water parcel to its final position as it is advected over a specified time window.

We identify the locations (region in space) where the two cyclonic LCFEs are. We define these initial LCFE locations based on watermass analyses (T, S, σT) at several depths, velocity and vorticity at several depths, and Lagrangian feature analysis (coherent structures, FTLE, etc.).

We color the material on these forward flowmaps by initial distances from the centroid of the region. This basically highlights where material in the eddies is going over time.

Overall, the cyclonic LCFEs become tilted due to advection differential in the vertical. The cyclonic LCFEs shed filaments as they rotate, advect with entrainment, and lead to spiraling of water masses as they erode in turbulent shear. In some cases, part of the surface LCFE waters may detach from their deeper waters.

Depth (m) Initial position May 28 to May 31 May 28 to June 3 May 28 to June 6 May 28 to June 9 May 28 to June 12
500 row02col01dist0500m.png
row02col02dist0mapdepth_idx_101_0001.png
row02col02dist0mapdepth_idx_101_0002.png
row02col02dist0mapdepth_idx_101_0003.png
row02col02dist0mapdepth_idx_101_0004.png
row02col02dist0mapdepth_idx_101_0005.png
1000 row03col01dist1000m.png
row03col02dist0mapdepth_idx_201_0001.png
row03col02dist0mapdepth_idx_201_0002.png
row03col02dist0mapdepth_idx_201_0003.png
row03col02dist0mapdepth_idx_201_0004.png
row03col02dist0mapdepth_idx_201_0005.png