Mutual information forecasts for optimal adaptive sampling guidance

Analysis and Forecasts for 22 Jun 0000Z to 27 Jun 0000Z 2025, Issued 22 Jun 2025

Measuring T,S    Verifying against σT

We use our mutual information (MI) forecasts between candidate observation locations and future regional field or variables of interest (target or verification field/variables) to predict the most informative future data locations. We use our MIT MSEAS ensemble forecast to predict these MI fields.

For the MI fields that we show in the table below, the goal is to predict the location of candidate future glider observations (temperature and salinity profiles) on different days (00Z June 22 to 00Z June 27) that are the most informative about the target σT, on 00Z June 28, 2025, in the region of the forecast neck of the LC and its uncertainty.

The locations with highest MI (bright yellow) on each day indicate where glider T and S profile observations are predicted to be most informative about the neck of the LC and its uncertainty at 00Z on June 28, 2025. Early on, the MI does not discriminate between the data well. As the measurement time gets closer to the verification time, sampling in the southeastern quadrant of the neck of the LC is the most useful.

00Z June 22 202500Z June 23 202500Z June 24 2025
MI_TS20250622000000_SigT20250628000000.png
MI_TS20250623000000_SigT20250628000000.png
MI_TS20250624000000_SigT20250628000000.png
00Z June 25 202500Z June 26 202500Z June 27 2025
MI_TS20250625000000_SigT20250628000000.png
MI_TS20250626000000_SigT20250628000000.png
MI_TS20250627000000_SigT20250628000000.png