MSEAS EM-APEX Float Reachability Forecast for 16 May 0000Z to 31 May 0000Z 2025, Issued 19 May 2025

This is a float reachability forecast, for a planned release on 16 May 0000Z, starting from the initial time of the PE forecast (which covers the period May 16 - May 31).

Starting points are located in cyclonic Loop Current (LC) Frontal Eddy (FE) centers on 16 May 0000Z (the initial time), as determined from water mass analyses. All runs assume 3 cm/s velocity unc., and run for 15 days.

In the plots below, the overlaid velocity vectors are those that the float "sees". This is a single velocity field constructed assuming that the float does two up/down profiles a day (0 to 1500m), each taking 8.5 hours and spends the rest of the day (7 hours) "parked" at 1500m.  The resultant velocity field consists of the 17/24*(0-1500m vertically averaged velocity) + 7/24*(1500m velocity) field.

The float starting in the northwest cyclonic LCFE is forecast to mainly advect along the northwest flank of the LC and then remain entrained in the same eddy which has moved to the northern flank of the LC, while the float starting in the east LCFE is forecast to advect southward and become re-entrained in the same eddy (which has also moved south).

Start point Animations 20250516 20250517 20250518 20250519 20250520 20250521 20250522 20250523 20250524 20250525 20250526 20250527 20250528 20250529 20250530 20250531
Northwest LCFE Movie nse1_vel3_v2_001.png
nse1_vel3_v2_002.png
nse1_vel3_v2_003.png
nse1_vel3_v2_004.png
nse1_vel3_v2_005.png
nse1_vel3_v2_006.png
nse1_vel3_v2_007.png
nse1_vel3_v2_008.png
nse1_vel3_v2_009.png
nse1_vel3_v2_010.png
nse1_vel3_v2_011.png
nse1_vel3_v2_012.png
nse1_vel3_v2_013.png
nse1_vel3_v2_014.png
nse1_vel3_v2_015.png
nse1_vel3_v2_016.png
East LCFE Movie nse2_vel3_v2_001.png
nse2_vel3_v2_002.png
nse2_vel3_v2_003.png
nse2_vel3_v2_004.png
nse2_vel3_v2_005.png
nse2_vel3_v2_006.png
nse2_vel3_v2_007.png
nse2_vel3_v2_008.png
nse2_vel3_v2_009.png
nse2_vel3_v2_010.png
nse2_vel3_v2_011.png
nse2_vel3_v2_012.png
nse2_vel3_v2_013.png
nse2_vel3_v2_014.png
nse2_vel3_v2_015.png
nse2_vel3_v2_016.png

Initial Fields with Start Points

Depth (m) σT T
150 ccnt_SigmaT0150mFull_GomR25deg002_001.gif
ccnt_T0150mFull_GomR25deg002_001.gif
500 ccnt_SigmaT0500mFull_GomR25deg002_001.gif
ccnt_T0500mFull_GomR25deg002_001.gif
1000 ccnt_SigmaT1000mFull_GomR25deg002_001.gif
ccnt_T1000mFull_GomR25deg002_001.gif