MSEAS EM-APEX Float Reachability Forecast for 05 Jun 0000Z to 12 Jun 0000Z 2025, Issued 03 Jun 2025

This is a float reachability forecast, for a planned release on 05 June 0000Z, starting from a 6-day PE forecast (which covers the period May 30 - Jun 12).

Starting points are located in cyclonic Loop Current (LC) Frontal Eddy (FE) centers on 05 Jun 0000Z, as determined from water mass analyses. All runs assume 3 cm/s velocity unc., and run for 7 days.

In the plots below, the overlaid velocity vectors are those that the float "sees". This is a single velocity field constructed assuming that the float does two up/down profiles a day (0 to 1500m), each taking 8.5 hours and spends the rest of the day (7 hours) "parked" at 1500m. The resultant velocity field consists of the 17/24*(0-1500m vertically averaged velocity) + 7/24*(1500m velocity) field.

The float starting in the northwest cyclonic LCFE is forecast to remain trapped in the eddy on the northwest flank of the LC, while the float starting in the east LCFE is forecast to move slightly SE but also remain entrained in the eddy.

Start point 20250605 20250606 20250607 20250608 20250609 20250610 20250611 20250612
Northwest LCFE nse1_vel3_v2_001.png
nse1_vel3_v2_002.png
nse1_vel3_v2_003.png
nse1_vel3_v2_004.png
nse1_vel3_v2_005.png
nse1_vel3_v2_006.png
nse1_vel3_v2_007.png
nse1_vel3_v2_008.png
East LCFE nse2_vel3_v2_001.png
nse2_vel3_v2_002.png
nse2_vel3_v2_003.png
nse2_vel3_v2_004.png
nse2_vel3_v2_005.png
nse2_vel3_v2_006.png
nse2_vel3_v2_007.png
nse2_vel3_v2_008.png

Initial Fields with Start Points

Depth (m) σT T
150 ccnt_SigmaT0150mFull_GomR25deg008_001.gif
ccnt_T0150mFull_GomR25deg008_001.gif
500 ccnt_SigmaT0500mFull_GomR25deg008_001.gif
ccnt_T0500mFull_GomR25deg008_001.gif
1000 ccnt_SigmaT1000mFull_GomR25deg008_001.gif
ccnt_T1000mFull_GomR25deg008_001.gif