LCS Analysis and Forecasts for 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 0000Z 2017, Issued 15 Aug 2017

The following figures show the FTLEs in the domain, at different times. These FTLE computations are for a time window of 1 hour for the forecast of 15 August 2017 to 16 August 2017. The window center shifts in 1 hour intervals. The flow maps were calculated using a PDE based approach by using 5th order spatial and 3rd order temporal schemes, and a novel composition based approach.

As a reminder, 12:00Z = 08:00 EDT, i.e., local time is 4 hours behind Zulu time.

0 m

South Beach, Martha's Vineyard Modeling Domain (200 m resolution, Implicit-2-way Nested)

0 m - Backward FTLE - 1 hour interval from 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 0000Z 2017

Time Window	13:00Z	14:00Z	15:00Z	16:00Z	17:00Z	18:00Z	19:00Z	20:00Z	21:00Z	22:00Z
1-hour window

0 m - Forward FTLE - 1 hour interval from 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 0000Z 2017

Time Window	13:00Z	14:00Z	15:00Z	16:00Z	17:00Z	18:00Z	19:00Z	20:00Z	21:00Z	22:00Z
1-hour window

Drifter Trajectory Forecast for 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 1200Z 2017, Issued 15 Aug 2017

Central Forecast

The following figures show the trajectories in the domain, at different times. The drifters are released at every 10 grid points. The grid has a model resolution of 200m. These trajectory computations are for a time window of 1 hour for the forecast of 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 1200Z 2017 (15 Aug 0800 EDT to 16 Aug 0800 EDT 2017). The window center shifts in 1 hour intervals.

As a reminder, 12:00Z = 08:00 EDT, i.e., local time is 4 hours behind Zulu time.

Depth, Domain, and Window	13:00Z	14:00Z	15:00Z	16:00Z	17:00Z	18:00Z	19:00Z	20:00Z	21:00Z	22:00Z
Depth: 0m; SouthBeach modeling domain; 01hr window