LCS Analysis and Forecasts for 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 0000Z 2017, Issued 14 Aug 2017

The following figures show the FTLEs in the domain, at different times. These FTLE computations are for a time window of 6 hours for the forecast of 15 August 2017 to 16 August 2017. The window center shifts in 1 hour intervals. The flow maps were calculated using a PDE based approach by using 5th order spatial and 3rd order temporal schemes, and a novel composition based approach.

As a reminder, 12:00Z = 08:00 EDT, i.e., local time is 4 hours behind Zulu time.

0 m

Martha's Vineyard Modeling Domain (200 m resolution, Implicit-2-way Nested)

0 m - Backward FTLE - 1 hour interval from 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 0000Z 2017

	12:00Z	13:00Z	14:00Z	15:00Z	16:00Z	17:00Z	18:00Z	19:00Z	20:00Z	21:00Z	22:00Z	23:00Z	24:00Z
Mean
RMSE

0 m - Forward FTLE - 1 hour interval from 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 0000Z 2017

	12:00Z	13:00Z	14:00Z	15:00Z	16:00Z	17:00Z	18:00Z	19:00Z	20:00Z	21:00Z	22:00Z	23:00Z	24:00Z
Mean
RMSE

Shelf Modeling Domain (600 m resolution, Implicit-2-way Nested)

0 m - Backward FTLE - 1 hour interval from 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 0000Z 2017

	12:00Z	13:00Z	14:00Z	15:00Z	16:00Z	17:00Z	18:00Z	19:00Z	20:00Z	21:00Z	22:00Z	23:00Z	24:00Z
Mean
RMSE

0 m - Forward FTLE - 1 hour interval from 15 Aug 1200Z to 16 Aug 0000Z 2017

	12:00Z	13:00Z	14:00Z	15:00Z	16:00Z	17:00Z	18:00Z	19:00Z	20:00Z	21:00Z	22:00Z	23:00Z	24:00Z
Mean
RMSE