LCS Analysis and Forecasts for 18 Aug 1200Z to 19 Aug 0000Z 2017, Issued 17 Aug 2017

The following figures show the FTLEs in the domain, at different times. These FTLE computations are for a time window of 3 hours for the forecast of 18 August 2017 to 19 August 2017. The window center shifts in 1 hour intervals. The flow maps were calculated using a PDE based approach by using 5th order spatial and 3rd order temporal schemes, and a novel composition based approach.

As a reminder, 12:00Z = 08:00 EDT, i.e., local time is 4 hours behind Zulu time.

0 m

Martha's Vineyard Modeling Domain (200 m resolution, Implicit-2-way Nested)

0 m - Backward FTLE - 1 hour interval from 18 Aug 1200Z to 19 Aug 0000Z 2017

14:00Z 15:00Z 16:00Z 17:00Z
Mean Mean_backward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame003.png
 Mean_backward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame004.png
 Mean_backward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame005.png
 Mean_backward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame006.png
RMSE RMSE_backward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame003.png
 RMSE_backward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame004.png
 RMSE_backward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame005.png
 RMSE_backward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame006.png

0 m - Forward FTLE - 1 hour interval from 18 Aug 1200Z to 19 Aug 0000Z 2017

14:00Z 15:00Z 16:00Z 17:00Z
Mean Mean_forward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame003.png
 Mean_forward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame004.png
 Mean_forward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame005.png
 Mean_forward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame006.png
RMSE RMSE_forward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame003.png
 RMSE_forward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame004.png
 RMSE_forward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame005.png
 RMSE_forward_full_0000cm_03hr_frame006.png