Real-Time QPE Simulations
QPE Pilot Study Ocean Physics Forecast
Forecast for 10 September 2008, Issued 8 September 2008
This web page presents the output from two 10 day free surface simulations forced with a
combination of COAMPS (wind stress) and NOGAPS (heat-flux, E-P) atmospheric forcing,
initialized using the Taiwanese
in situ data (OR2-OR3 data) and a summer climatology
created using June-August profiles and the
HydroBase2 software. It also assimilates the
OR1 initialization survey. The bathymetry used is the NCOR
bathymetry.
In our simulations so far, the transport in the Taiwan Strait is still uncertain. The 2
forecasts types we issued today correspond to an initial 1Sv northward transport
and a zero initial net transport. Of course, these boundary transports change with time, based on the
interior flows and open boundary conditions. A second uncertainty source is the impact of
tidal effects on the mesoscale hydrographic and circulation features in the forecasts,
especially just north of Taiwan. We are currently tuning simulations with tides and
estimating the skill of different initial conditions.
From the OR1-2-3 data, SST data and our varied model simulations, there is some upwelling
of deeper Kuroshio water on the shelf north of Taiwan and in the QPE area, with nice
filaments being advected further north-eastward along the shelfbreak on the edge of the
Kuroshio. Associated with this is a relatively classic situation of a meander of the
Kuroshio in the QPE area.
Acoustic simulations from each of these two dynamical simulations, with vertical sections
of transmission loss (TL) and sound speed, can be found
here.
| Nowcasts and Forecasts of Environmental Conditions |
|---|
| Initial Transport |
50m Temperature |
50m Salinity |
50m Velocity |
Complete set of Plots |
| Nowcast - 9 September |
Forecast - 10 September |
Nowcast - 9 September |
Forecast - 10 September |
Nowcast - 9 September |
Forecast - 10 September |
0 Sv |
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X |
1.0Sv N |
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X |
