This web page presents the output from two 11 day free surface simulations forced with a combination of COAMPS (wind stress) and NOGAPS (heat-flux, E-P) atmospheric forcing, initialized using the Taiwanese in situ data (OR2-OR3 data) and a summer climatology created using June-August profiles and the HydroBase2 software. The simulations also assimilate the OR1 initialization survey and the first 2 SeaSoar surveys. The bathymetry used is the NCOR bathymetry.
In our simulations so far, the transport in the Taiwan Strait is still uncertain. The 2 forecasts types we issued today correspond to an initial 1Sv southward transport and a zero initial net transport. Of course, these boundary transports change with time, based on the interior flows and open boundary conditions. A second uncertainty source is the impact of tidal effects on the mesoscale hydrographic and circulation features in the forecasts, especially just north of Taiwan. We are currently tuning simulations with tides and estimating the skill of different initial conditions.
From the OR1-2-3 data, SST data and our varied model simulations, there is some upwelling of deeper Kuroshio water on the shelf north of Taiwan and in the QPE area, with filaments being advected further north-eastward along the shelfbreak on the edge of the Kuroshio. Associated with this is a relatively classic situation of a meander of the Kuroshio in the QPE area.
Acoustic simulations from each of these two dynamical simulations, with vertical sections of transmission loss (TL) and sound speed, can be found here.
|Nowcasts and Forecasts of Environmental Conditions|
|Initial Transport||50m Temperature||50m Salinity||50m Velocity||Complete set of Plots|
|Nowcast - 10 September||Forecast - 11 September||Nowcast - 10 September||Forecast - 11 September||Nowcast - 10 September||Forecast - 11 September|
|0 Sv||X||1.0Sv S||X|
|Available NetCDF Files|
|1.0Sv S||Along Grid||peout_1SvS09sep2008.nc.gz|