OR1 Forecast Skill Metrics
OR1 Forecast Skill Metrics
Contrasting Different Initial Transports Between Taiwan and Mainland China
This web page compares the Bias and RMS skill metrics of 3 different 9 day
forecasts,
each starting on 31 Aug 2008, forced with a
combination of COAMPS (wind stress) and NOGAPS (heat-flux, E-P) atmospheric forcing,
initialized using the Taiwanese
in situ data (OR2-OR3 data) and a summer climatology
created using June-August profiles and the
HydroBase2 software. The forecasts
differ in the initial transport imposed between Taiwan and mainland
China (0, ±1 Sv)
Seven snapshot realizations of the
OR1 initialization survey are created by objectively analyzing the data every 12 hours
in the period 2-5 Sep 2008. From these realizations, volume averaged bias and
RMS errors are computed for each forecast,
using the misfits between these forecasts and the objectively
analyzed data where the error estimates of the OAed data are small enough.
Results are presented in the table below.
Based on these metrics it appears that, in the period after
2 Sep 2008, the net transport between
Taiwan and mainland China was either zero or 1Sv northward.
| | Skill |
Sections through stations 7-10 (3 Sep 2008 00Z) |
| Data |
Forecasts for 3 Sep 2008 00Z |
| 1Sv N | 0Sv | 1Sv S |
| Temperature |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| Salinity |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| Forecasts issued from the different
initializations |
| Initial Transport |
Forecasts issued for: |
| 6 Sep 2008 | 7 Sep 2008 | 8 Sep 2008 |
9 Sep 2008 | 10 Sep 2008 | 11 Sep 2008 | 12 Sep 2008 |
| 1Sv N |
X |
X |
X |
X |
X |
|
|
| 0Sv |
|
|
|
|
X |
X |
X |
| 1Sv S |
|
|
X |
X |
|
X |
X |
