Data collected by the WHOI and Scripps gliders have been blended with historical observations to provide an estimate for the current synoptic conditions. This estimate of synoptic conditions provides the initialization conditions for the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) model simulations.

The model simulation uses data from 23 - 30 July, 2003 in the nowcast (initial conditions). Data from July 31, and 1-3 August are assimilated into the ongoing simulation. The complete data coverage looks like this.

Atmospheric forcing for the PE model is derived from the US Navy operational COAMPS (Jim Doyle) at 3km resolution. Recent winds have not been upwelling favorable. Winds are generally light and variable, leading to relaxation conditions. During relaxation conditions, upwelling along the coast diminishes or vanishes and warm off-shore water moves on-shore.

From Jul 27 to Aug 04, the simulated regional ocean flow evolves from a set of cyclones and anticyclones into a main anticyclone in front the Bay. The onshore side of this anticyclone is fed by a southward coastal current meandering along the shelfbreak down to about 150m. The flow in Monterey Bay responds to these offshore features and to local atmospheric forcings. A branch of the CUC, with a core around 200m depth, is likely present on the western side of the anticyclone (which is sandwiched between the CUC offshore and the southward coastal flow onshore),