Data collected by the research vessel Point Sur and WHOI and Scripps gliders from 2-6 August 2003 has been analyzed to provide an estimate for the current synoptic conditions. This estimate of synoptic conditions provides the initialization conditions for the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) model simulations.

The model simulation uses data from 2-6 August 2003 in the nowcast (initial conditions). Additional data from 7-14 August from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Scripps Institute of Oceanography autonomous underwater vehicles (gliders) are assimilated into the ongoing simulation. The complete coverage to date (14 August) during the exercise is shown for the Scripps and the WHOI gliders.

Atmospheric forcing for the PE model is derived from the US Navy operational COAMPS (Jim Doyle) at 3km resolution. Early August winds were generally not upwelling favorable. Winds were light and variable, leading to relaxation conditions. During relaxation conditions, upwelling along the coast diminishes or vanishes and warm off-shore water moves on-shore. From 7 August onwards winds have been upwelling favorable. The anomalous warming of Monterey Bay is being replaced by cooler waters and upwelling off Points Ano Nuevo and Sur has occurred and the upwelling has been transported southwards across the mouth of Monterey Bay.