AOSN-II August 2003

General simulation description

Data collected by the research vessel Point Sur and WHOI and Scripps gliders from 2-6 August 2003 were analyzed to provide an estimate for the synoptic conditions at that time. This estimate of synoptic conditions provided the initialization conditions for the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) model simulations. Subsequently, each simulation has been restarted from the simulation which preceeded it.

Additional data from 7-26 August from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and Scripps Institute of Oceanography autonomous underwater vehicles (gliders) have been assimilated into the ongoing simulation. In addition, SST from Naval Postgraduate School aircraft flights has been assimilated on 15, 20, 21 and 22 August. The complete data coverage during the exercise through 26 August is shown for the Scripps and the WHOI gliders.


Model Simulation Results (0000 UTC 26-28 August 2003)
[Monterey Bay Zoom]
Temperature Salinity

The product package includes nowcast and forecast maps of temperature (oC) and salinity (PSU) with superimposed vectors of sub-tidal velocity at three depth levels: 0m, 10 and 30m. These levels are: the surface (0m), within the mixed layer (10m), and the middle of the thermocline (30m). All products are for 0000Z of the respective day. Clicking on "Temperature" or "Salinity" in the table above accesses the products for that variable.


Simulation analysis

Atmospheric forcing for the PE model is derived from the US Navy operational COAMPS (Jim Doyle) at 3km resolution. Early August winds were generally not upwelling favorable. Winds were light and variable, leading to relaxation conditions. During the relaxation conditions, upwelling along the coast diminished and warm off-shore water moved on-shore. From 7 August through 19 August winds were upwelling favorable. The anomalous warming of Monterey Bay was replaced by cooler waters and significantly upwelling off Points Ano Nuevo and Sur occurred. The upwelled water was transported southwards across the mouth of Monterey Bay.

For the period 20-23 August the wind forcing was light and from the south and southwest. In response, general warming took place and upwelling at both Points Ano Nuevo and Sur were significantly reduced. Warm off-shore water moved towards the coast and was carried up the coast. As a response to the wind, there was the formation of a cyclonic eddy to the south of the persistent Monterey Bay anti-cyclone. For the period 22-24 August the wind forcing was more upwelling favorable. A resumption of upwelling at both Points Ano Nuevo and Sur took place, especially visible below the surface layer.

For the period 24-26 August the wind forcing is predicted to continue to be upwelling favorable, especially in direction (winds are less strong). The general circulation in Monterey Bay is towards shore at the beginning of the period, with a tendency for the general cyclonic circulation of Monterey Bay to begin to resume by 28 August. An interesting feature in the circulation is the development of a small cyclonic eddy at the center of Monterey Bay There is warming at the northern side of Monterey Bay, as has been seen previously. The coherent along-shore current from north to south seen in the full domain simulation generates a large meander by 26 August. This meander moves on-shore towards Monterey Peninsula and can be seen to push warmer water into the Bay from the south. This concentrates the cold water into the center of the Bay.


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