Advanced Fisheries Management Information System

The following pages present results from a coupled physical/biological/Cod simulation which produces a real-time nowcast and short forecast for Georges Bank, including the effects of the assimilation of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface color (SSC) data. The product package includes daily maps of surface temperature with superimposed vectors of sub-tidal velocity; chlorophyll at 15m; bottom temperature with superimposed vectors of sub-tidal velocity; and, Cod abundance at the bottom.

A project description follows the forecast.

Each simulation runs for seven days. A Monday product includes a nowcast and one day of forecast. A Wednesday product includes a nowcast and two days of forecast. Nominally, SSC is assimilated for the first 2 days of each simulation, and SST is assimilated for the second and third days. If not available, the last available data is assimilated. FNMOC atmospheric forcings are utilized on a twice-daily basis throughout the simulation with analyses used where possible and forecasts thereafter. The initialization field for each simulation is a restart from the previous week's simulation. Forecasts for Monday-Tuesday are initialized from the Tuesday fields of the previous Wednesday-Friday forecast period, while forecasts for Wednesday-Friday are initialized from the Friday fields of the previous Monday-Tuesday forecast period.

The simulation, which produced the enclosed nowcast for 17 April and forecast for 18 April, was launched on Friday 15 April. The simulation assimilates SST data from 13 and 14 April and weekly-averaged SSC for the period ending 11 April. There is no real-time in situ data available to be included in the assimilation process. The simulation is maintained with remotely sensed data.

The sea surface temperature and velocity fields indicate relatively typical flow around Georges Bank, with clockwise circulation around the bank and over the northeast peak, and flow out of the Gulf of Maine through the Great South Channel. The southern edge of the domain is dominated by interactions with the shelf-slope front, which is relatively active in the current forecast period. Note that the front and eddying associated with the shelf/slope front is real; some of the details are not. The details are expected to be improved when the forecast is generated from a nested or larger domain (a planned upgrade) and multivariate assimilation of SST and compatible salinity is carried out. Chlorophyll shows enhancement over the bank with slight depletion from 17-18 April. The bottom temperature shows high values over the crest of the bank, which are indicative of enhanced mixing. The stripe of warmer temperatures along the southern edge of Georges Bank marks the foot of the shelf-slope front. Cod abundance is designed to follow the 5° C isotherm. Enhancement along the southern edge of Georges Bank is the result of flow convergence set up by the interaction of flow around the bank and along the shelf-slope front.

Nowcast - April 17, 2000

Surface Temperature and Velocity	Chlorophyll at 15m

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Forecast - April 18, 2000

Surface Temperature and Velocity	Chlorophyll at 15m

Nowcast - April 17, 2000

Bottom Temperature and Velocity	Cod Abundance

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Forecast - April 18, 2000

Surface Temperature and Velocity	Cod Abundance

The Advanced Fisheries Management Information System (AFMIS) is intended to apply state-of-the-art multidisciplinary and computational capabilities to high-frequency operational fisheries management. The system development is aimed toward: 1) utilizing information on the "state" of ocean physics, biology, and chemistry; the assessment of spatially-resolved fish-stock population dynamics and the temporal-spatial deployment of fishing effort to be used in the operational management of fish stocks; and, 2) forecasting and understanding physical and biological conditions leading to recruitment variability. Systems components are being developed in the context of using the Harvard Ocean Prediction System to support or otherwise interact with the: 1) synthesis and analysis of very large data sets; 2) building of a multidisciplinary multiscale model (coupled ocean physics/N-P-Z/fish dynamics/management models) appropriate for the northwest Atlantic shelf, particularly Massachusetts Bay and Georges Bank; 3) the application and development of data assimilation techniques; and, 4) with an emphasis on the incorporation of remotely sensed data into the data stream.

AFMIS is designed to model a large region consisting of most of the Northwest Atlantic (NWA). Several smaller domains, including the Gulf of Maine (GOM) and Georges Bank (GB) are nested within this larger domain. This provides a capability to zoom into these domains with higher resolution while maintaining the essential physics which are coupled to the larger domain. AFMIS will be maintained by the assimilation of a variety of real time data. Specifically this includes sea surface temperature (SST), color (SSC), and height (SSH) obtained from several space-based remote sensors (AVHRR, SeaWiFS and Topex/Poseidon). The assimilation of these data will allow nowcasting and forecasting over significant periods of time.

The Real-Time Demonstration of Concept (RTDOC) nowcasting and forecasting exercise is intended to demonstrate important aspects of the AFMIS concept by producing real time coupled forecasts of physical fields, biological and chemical fields, and fish abundance fields. It is intended to verify the physics, to validate the biology and chemistry but only to demonstrate the concept of forecasting the fish fields, since the fish dynamical models are at a very early stage of development. In addition, it is intended to demonstrate the integrated system concept and to consider the implication of coupling a management model. The goals of the RTDOC are: 1) to demonstrate real-time nowcasting and forecasting of coupled physical, biochemical and fish distribution fields and 2) utilize the data obtained to produce information relevant to fisheries management. These goals are based on several hypotheses, including the assumption that a dedicated ocean prediction system (AFMIS) which properly incorporates the interaction processes and feedback between the three dynamics can nowcast and forecast state variables of interest and that fish abundance distributions vary over 1 to 2 week time scales in ways that are important for fisheries management and fishing. The demonstration of concept has been structured to directly address these hypotheses by providing results in near real time to a variety of users.

Observational System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) continue to develop the additional capabilities for AFMIS. Such OSSEs have been carried out for over a year in three domains: GB, GOM and NWA. The OSSEs in the GB domain involved the implementation and calibration of the physical (tidal effects, turbulent mixing, etc.), biological (initial adjustment, rates and other parameter testing) and Cod models based on NMFS MARMAP and US GLOBEC data. As improvements to the AFMIS system are completed, the AFMIS products will be upgraded and expanded.

UMass.-Dartmouth: Brian J. Rothschild - Lead Principal Investigator, J. Bisagni, A. Cabeza, A. Gangopadhyay, H.-S. Kim, L. Lanerolle, G. Strout, and M. Sundermeyer.

Harvard University: Allan R. Robinson - Principal Investigator and RTDOC Chief Scientist, P.J. Haley, Jr., P.F.J. Lermusiaux, W.G. Leslie, and C.J. Lozano

Physical Sciences, Inc.: Merlin Miller - Principal Investigator

The AFMIS RTDOC is supported by NASA and ONR.