\r\nAn important element of present oceanographic research is the\r\nassessment and quantification of uncertainty. These studies are challenging in the\r\ncoastal ocean due to the wide variety of physical processes occurring on a broad range\r\nof spatial and temporal scales. In order to assess new methods for quantifying and\r\npredicting uncertainty, a joint Taiwan-US field program was undertaken in August\/\r\nSeptember 2009 to compare model forecasts of uncertainties in ocean circulation and\r\nacoustic propagation, with high-resolution in situ observations. The geographical\r\nsetting was the continental shelf and slope northeast of Taiwan, where a feature called\r\nthe “cold dome” frequently forms. Even though it is hypothesized that Kuroshio\r\nsubsurface intrusions are the water sources for the cold dome, the dome’s dynamics\r\nare highly uncertain, involving multiple scales and many interacting ocean features.\r\nDuring the experiment, a combination of near-surface and profiling drifters, broadscale\r\nand high-resolution hydrography, mooring arrays, remote sensing, and regional\r\nocean model forecasts of fields and uncertainties were used to assess mean fields and\r\nuncertainties in the region. River runoff from Typhoon Morakot, which hit Taiwan\r\nAugust 7-8, 2009, strongly affected shelf stratification. In addition to the river runoff,\r\na cold cyclonic eddy advected into the region north of the Kuroshio, resulting in a\r\ncold dome formation event. Uncertainty forecasts were successfully employed to\r\nguide the hydrographic sampling plans. Measurements and forecasts also shed light\r\non the evolution of cold dome waters, including the frequency of eddy shedding\r\nto the north-northeast, and interactions with the Kuroshio and tides. For the first\r\ntime in such a complex region, comparisons between uncertainty forecasts and the\r\nmodel skill at measurement locations validated uncertainty forecasts. To complement\r\nthe real-time model simulations, historical simulations with another model\r\nshow that large Kuroshio intrusions were associated with low sea surface height\r\nanomalies east of Taiwan, suggesting that there may be some degree of predictability\r\nfor Kuroshio intrusions.\r\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
An important element of present oceanographic research is the assessment and quantification of uncertainty. These studies are challenging in the coastal ocean due to the wide variety of physical processes occurring on a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. In order to assess new methods for quantifying and predicting uncertainty, a joint Taiwan-US field […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,37,33,38,5,64,59],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncertainty-quantification-and-reduced-order-modeling","category-applications-to-ocean-dynamics","category-uncertainty-quantification-and-predictions","category-physical-oceanography","category-publications","category-papers-in-refereed-journals-uncertainty-quantification-and-predictions","category-papers-in-refereed-journals-physical-oceanography"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1159","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1159"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1159\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2487,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1159\/revisions\/2487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1159"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1159"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1159"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}