{"id":891,"date":"2006-09-06T04:23:17","date_gmt":"2006-09-06T08:23:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mseas.net16.net\/?p=891"},"modified":"2021-08-16T21:10:33","modified_gmt":"2021-08-17T01:10:33","slug":"quantifying-uncertainties-in-ocean-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/?p=891","title":{"rendered":"Quantifying Uncertainties in Ocean Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"A multitude of physical and biological processes\r\noccur in the ocean over a wide range of temporal\r\nand spatial scales. Many of these processes are nonlinear\r\nand highly variable, and involve interactions\r\nacross several scales and oceanic disciplines. For\r\nexample, sound propagation is influenced by physical\r\nand biological properties of the water column\r\nand by the seabed. From observations and conservation\r\nlaws, ocean scientists formulate models that\r\naim to explain and predict dynamics of the sea.\r\nThis formulation is intricate because it is challenging\r\nto observe the ocean on a sustained basis and to\r\ntransform basic laws into generic but usable models.\r\nThere are imperfections in both data and model\r\nestimates. It is important to quantify such uncertainties\r\nto understand limitations and identify the\r\nresearch needed to increase accuracies, which will\r\nlead to fundamental progress.\r\nThere are several sources of uncertainties in ocean\r\nmodeling. First, to simplify models (thereby reducing\r\ncomputational expenses), explicit calculations are\r\nonly performed on a restricted range of spatial and\r\ntemporal scales (referred to as the &#8220;scale window&#8221;)\r\n(Nihoul and Djenidi, 1998). Influences of scales outside\r\nthis window are neglected, parameterized, or\r\nprovided at boundaries. Such simplifications and\r\nscale reductions are a source of error. Second, uncertainties\r\nalso arise from the limited knowledge of\r\nprocesses within the scale window, which leads to\r\napproximate representations or parameterizations.\r\nThird, ocean data are required for model initialization\r\nand parameter values; however, raw measurements\r\nare limited in coverage and accuracy, and they\r\nare often processed with the aim of extracting information\r\nwithin a predetermined scale window. Initial\r\nconditions and model parameters are thus inexact.\r\nFourth, models of interactions between the ocean\r\nand Earth system are approximate and ocean boundary\r\nconditions are inexact. For example, effects of\r\nuncertain atmospheric fluxes can dominate oceanic\r\nuncertainty. Fifth, miscalculations occur due to numerical\r\nimplementations. All of the above leads to\r\ndifferences between the actual values (unknown) and\r\nthe measured or modeled values of physical, biological,\r\nand geo-acoustical fields and properties.","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A multitude of physical and biological processes occur in the ocean over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Many of these processes are nonlinear and highly variable, and involve interactions across several scales and oceanic disciplines. For example, sound propagation is influenced by physical and biological properties of the water column and by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,33,5,64],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncertainty-quantification-and-reduced-order-modeling","category-uncertainty-quantification-and-predictions","category-publications","category-papers-in-refereed-journals-uncertainty-quantification-and-predictions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=891"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/891\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5729,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/891\/revisions\/5729"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/mseas.mit.edu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}