The following figures show the water volumes that are forecast to subduct in 3D (computed based on our MSEAS forward flowmap forecast) from the surface layers to deeper layers. They illustrate in 3D+time where these waters start, how they move, and where they end up.
The waters that are plotted in this subduction analysis are only the volumes of water that start within the upper ocean layers (0-to-10 m depths) anywhere in our modeling domain and reach 60m after 4 days. This is all that is plotted, at 3 times (blue is day 0, green is day 2 and red is day 4).
Below, the blue water volumes are the initial positions of these waters that start within 0-to-10 m depths and reach 50m after 4 days. These water volumes are advected using a flowmap-based and composition-based advection scheme, using our MSEAS forecast of the 3D ocean currents (u, v and w). The green water volumes represent the location of the parcels after two days while the red water volumes represent the final location after 4 days. The combined figures in the last row show the 3D water volumes, overlaid, at the 3 different times.
The plots for 28 Mar 1200Z to 1 Apr 1200Z 2019 presented below show the 3D subduction MSEAS forecast. The winds are substantially weaker than in the past days, but still significant for the upper layers. The release of kinetic energy input by the strong winds has however created new (sub)-mesoscale eddies and frontal structures, especially south of the Spanish coastline. As a result, the subduction now also takes place along these eddies and fronts that have formed (e.g. deep sinking in thin sheets along convergent/attracting fronts and edges of eddies, etc.). These subducted waters then remain affected by the deeper ocean variability.
| Time & Depths | Top View | 3D View | Side View |
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| t0 and upper 10m |
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| t0 + 48 hours |
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| t0 + 96 hours and water reaching 60m |
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