MSEAS Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasts for 10 Apr 1200Z to 15 Apr 0000Z 2019, Issued 10 Apr 2019

MSEAS 1/200-deg Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts (tidally-forced forecasts downscaled from WMOP, HYCOM and CMEMS)

Physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used to represent uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for T, S, u, v, w and eta fields, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.

Ensemble Mean Ensemble Standard Deviation

Click on any section label for a full set of plots.

Note: The units of vertical velocity are m/day; of horizontal velocity, cm/s.

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Standard Deviations (every 6 hours)
Section along 4.25°W (1/200° resolution)
Horiz. VelocityTemperatureSalinityVert. Velocity
Section along 36°N (1/200° resolution)
Horiz. VelocityTemperatureSalinityVert. Velocity
Section along 2.75°W (1/200° resolution)
Horiz. VelocityTemperatureSalinityVert. Velocity
 

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Means (every 6 hours)
Section along 4.25°W (1/200° resolution)
Along-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinityVert. Velocity
Section along 36°N (1/200° resolution)
Along-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinityVert. Velocity
Section along 2.75°W (1/200° resolution)
Along-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinityVert. Velocity

To obtain the MSEAS ESSE ensemble files, contact the MSEAS group.

The file names can be interpreted as follows (all times are in UTC):

            time of last
          analysis field          time of last
           in simulation        fields in file
              yyyymmddHH            yyyymmddHH
MIT_calypso_2019040900_2019040900_2019041500_01h.nc.gz
                         yyyymmddHH            HH
                      time of first    frequency with which
                     fields in file  fields are stored in file


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