MSEAS Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasts for 10 Mar 0000Z to 14 Mar 0000Z 2022, Issued 10 Mar 2022

MSEAS 2700m Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts (tidally-forced forecasts downscaled from WMOP)

Physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used to represent uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for T, S, u, v, w and eta fields, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.

Ensemble Mean Ensemble Standard Deviation

Click on any section label for a full set of plots.

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Standard Deviations (every 6 hours)
Section 1 (2700m resolution)
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 2 (2700m resolution)
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 3 (2700m resolution)
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 4 (2700m resolution)
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
 

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Means (every 6 hours)
Section 1 (2700m resolution)
Sigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 2 (2700m resolution)
Sigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 3 (2700m resolution)
Sigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 4 (2700m resolution)
Sigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity

To obtain the MSEAS ESSE ensemble files, contact the MSEAS group.

The file names can be interpreted as follows (all times are in UTC):

            time of last
          analysis field          time of last
           in simulation        fields in file
              yyyymmddHH            yyyymmddHH
MIT_calypso_2022030800_2022030800_2022031400_01h.nc.gz
                         yyyymmddHH            HH
                      time of first    frequency with which
                     fields in file  fields are stored in file


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