Real-Time MIT Product and Descriptive Pages for CALYPSO

MSEAS forecast of 3D Lagrangian subduction of water volumes for 13 Mar 0000Z to 17 Mar 0000Z 2022, Issued 13 Mar 2022

The following figures show the water volumes that are forecast to subduct in 3D (computed based on our MSEAS forward flowmap forecast) from the surface layers to deeper layers. They illustrate in 3D+time where these waters start, how they move, and where they end up.

The waters that are plotted in this subduction analysis are only the volumes of water that start within the upper ocean layers (above 15m depth) anywhere in our modeling domain and reach 50m after 4 days. This is all that is plotted, at 3 times (blue is day 0, green is day 2 and red is day 4).

Below, the blue water volumes are the initial positions of these waters that start above 15 m depth and reach 50m after 4 days. These water volumes are advected using a flowmap-based and composition-based advection scheme, using our MSEAS forecast of the 3D ocean currents (u, v and w). The green water volumes represent the location of the parcels after two days while the red water volumes represent the final location after 4 days. The combined figures in the last row show the 3D water volumes, overlaid, at the 3 different times.

Overall, our MSEAS data-assimilative modeling system and flowmaps forecast that the main dynamical drivers of subduction from 0-15m depth to more than 50m depth are as follows: i) the heavier waters from the Gulf of Lions are advected southwestward and lead to submesoscale subduction and mixing in the northern Baleares islands region; and ii), the local dynamics in the overall region and it features, which involve the Northern and Balearic currents, and multiple submesoscale fronts, eddies, and jets, all of which also lead to submesoscale subduction.