MSEAS Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasts for 06 May 0400Z to 08 May 1600Z 2021, Issued 05 May 2021

MSEAS 600m Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts (tidally-forced forecasts downscaled from HYCOM)

Physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used to represent uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for plume, T, S, u, v fields, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.

Ensemble Mean Ensemble Standard Deviation

Click on any depth label for a full set of plots.

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Standard Deviations (every 6 hours)
Full Modeling Domain (600m resolution)
0m
VelocityTemperatureSalinity
75m
VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Bottom
PlumeVelocityTemperatureSalinity

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Means (every 6 hours)
Full Modeling Domain (600m resolution)
0m
VelocityTemperatureSalinity
75m
VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Bottom
PlumeVelocityTemperatureSalinity
   

To obtain the MSEAS ESSE ensemble files, contact the MSEAS group.

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