MSEAS Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasts for 18 Jul 0000Z to 22 Jul 0000Z 2024, Issued 19 Jul 2024

MSEAS 2.4km Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts (atmospheric and tidally-forced forecasts initialized from both downscaled Mercator and downscaled HYCOM)

To obtain the large-ensemble 2-way nested forecasts, physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used to represent the dominant uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for the MSEAS T, S, u, v, w, and η fields downscaled from HYCOM and Mercator, in the MSEAS model parameters, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.

Ensemble Mean Ensemble Standard Deviation

Click on any section label for a full set of plots.

sec_locs_topo_new.png

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Standard Deviations (every 12 hours)
Section 1 (2.4km resolution)
Sound SpeedSigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 2 (2.4km resolution)
Sound SpeedSigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 3 (2.4km resolution)
Sound SpeedSigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 4 (2.4km resolution)
Sound SpeedSigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
 

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Means (every 12 hours)
Section 1 (2.4km resolution)
Sound SpeedSigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 2 (2.4km resolution)
Sound SpeedSigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 3 (2.4km resolution)
Sound SpeedSigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 4 (2.4km resolution)
Sound SpeedSigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity

To obtain the MSEAS ESSE ensemble files, contact the MSEAS group.

The file names can be interpreted as follows (all times are in UTC):

          time of last
        analysis field          time of last
         in simulation        fields in file
            yyyymmddHH            yyyymmddHH
MIT_NESMA_2024071600_2024071600_2024072200_01h.nc.gz
                       yyyymmddHH            HH
                    time of first    frequency with which
                   fields in file  fields are stored in file


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