MSEAS forecast of 3D Lagrangian subduction of water volumes for 18 Feb 0000Z to 22 Feb 0000Z 2022, Issued 18 Feb 2022

The following figures show the water volumes that are forecast to subduct in 3D (computed based on our MSEAS forward flowmap forecast) from the surface layers to deeper layers. They illustrate in 3D+time where these waters start, how they move, and where they end up.

The waters that are plotted in this subduction analysis are only the volumes of water that start within the upper ocean layers (above 15m depth) anywhere in our modeling domain and reach 50m after 4 days. This is all that is plotted, at 3 times (blue is day 0, green is day 2 and red is day 4).

Below, the blue water volumes are the initial positions of these waters that start above 15 m depth and reach 50m after 4 days. These water volumes are advected using a flowmap-based and composition-based advection scheme, using our MSEAS forecast of the 3D ocean currents (u, v and w). The green water volumes represent the location of the parcels after two days while the red water volumes represent the final location after 4 days. The combined figures in the last row show the 3D water volumes, overlaid, at the 3 different times.

3D Lagrangian subduction in the Calypso Domain (MSEAS 900m tidally-forced forecasts downscaled from WMOP)

Time & Depths	Top View	Top View (Zoomed-in to Operational Area)	3D View	Side View
t0 and upper 15m
t0 + 48 hours
t0 + 96 hours and water reaching 50m
Overlaid