MSEAS Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasts for 04 May 0000Z to 09 May 0000Z 2025, Issued 04 May 2025
MSEAS 1/25° Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts (atmospheric and tidally-forced forecasts initialized from downscaled HYCOM)
Physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used to represent the dominant uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for T, S, u, v, w, and eta fields for the HYCOM modeling system fields, in the MSEAS model parameters, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.
Click on any depth label for a full set of plots.
Note: The units of horizontal velocity are cm/s.
| Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Standard Deviations (every 24 hours) |
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| Gulf Modeling Domain (1/25° resolution) |
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0m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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50m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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100m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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150m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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300m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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500m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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| Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Means (every 24 hours) |
|---|
| Gulf Modeling Domain (1/25° resolution) |
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0m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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50m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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100m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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150m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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300m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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500m |
| Sigma-T | Horiz. Velocity | Temperature | Salinity |
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To obtain the MSEAS ESSE ensemble files, contact the MSEAS group.
The file names can be interpreted as follows (all times are in UTC):
time of last
analysis field time of last
in simulation fields in file
yyyymmddHH yyyymmddHH
MIT_grase_2025050400_2025050400_2025050900_06h.nc.gz
yyyymmddHH HH
time of first frequency with which
fields in file fields are stored in file
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