MSEAS Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasts for 15 Mar 0000Z to 20 Mar 0000Z 2024, Issued 15 Mar 2024

MSEAS 1/25° Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts (atmospheric and tidally-forced forecasts initialized from both downscaled Mercator and downscaled HYCOM)

Physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used to represent the dominant uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for T, S, u, v, w, and eta fields for the HYCOM and Mercator modeling system fields, in the MSEAS model parameters, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.

Ensemble Mean Ensemble Standard Deviation

Click on any depth label for a full set of plots.

Note: The units of horizontal velocity are cm/s.

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Standard Deviations (every 24 hours)
Gulf Modeling Domain (1/25° resolution)
0m
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
100m
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
300m
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
500m
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Means (every 24 hours)
Gulf Modeling Domain (1/25° resolution)
0m
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
100m
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
300m
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
500m
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
   

To obtain the MSEAS ESSE ensemble files, contact the MSEAS group.

The file names can be interpreted as follows (all times are in UTC):

          time of last
        analysis field          time of last
         in simulation        fields in file
            yyyymmddHH            yyyymmddHH
MIT_mastr_2024031500_2024031500_2024032000_01h.nc.gz
                       yyyymmddHH            HH
                    time of first    frequency with which
                   fields in file  fields are stored in file


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