MSEAS Probabilistic Analysis and Forecasts for 10 Feb 0000Z to 14 Feb 0000Z 2024, Issued 10 Feb 2024

MSEAS 1/25° Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts (atmospheric and tidally-forced forecasts initialized from both downscaled Mercator and downscaled HYCOM)

Physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used to represent the dominant uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for T, S, u, v, w, and eta fields for the HYCOM and Mercator modeling system fields, in the MSEAS model parameters, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.

Ensemble Mean Ensemble Standard Deviation

Click on any section label for a full set of plots.

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Standard Deviations (every 6 hours)
Section 1 (1/25° resolution)
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 2 (1/25° resolution)
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 3 (1/25° resolution)
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 4 (1/25° resolution)
Sigma-THoriz. VelocityTemperatureSalinity
 

Snapshot Time-Series of the ESSE Ensemble Means (every 6 hours)
Section 1 (1/25° resolution)
Sigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 2 (1/25° resolution)
Sigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 3 (1/25° resolution)
Sigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity
Section 4 (1/25° resolution)
Sigma-TAlong-Section VelocityAcross-Section VelocityTemperatureSalinity

To obtain the MSEAS ESSE ensemble files, contact the MSEAS group.

The file names can be interpreted as follows (all times are in UTC):

          time of last
        analysis field          time of last
         in simulation        fields in file
            yyyymmddHH            yyyymmddHH
MIT_mastr_2024021000_2024021000_2024021800_01h.nc.gz
                       yyyymmddHH            HH
                    time of first    frequency with which
                   fields in file  fields are stored in file


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