QPE Pilot Study Ocean Physics Forecast

Forecast for 12 September 2008, Issued 10 September 2008

This web page presents the output from two 11 day free surface simulations forced with a combination of COAMPS (wind stress) and NOGAPS (heat-flux, E-P) atmospheric forcing, initialized using the Taiwanese in situ data (OR2-OR3 data) and a summer climatology created using June-August profiles and the HydroBase2 software. The simulations also assimilate the OR1 initialization survey and the first 2 SeaSoar surveys. The bathymetry used is the NCOR bathymetry.

The transport in the Taiwan Strait is becoming less uncertain. Based on our quick-look data forecasts comparisons that we carried out on Sep7-8 using data for Sep 2-5 we had received, it appeared that the transport was close to 0 Sv or northward around Sep3-9. Forecast skill metrics based on data-forecast comparisons tend to confirm this. With the Typhoon building up yesterday and today and in the coming days, it appears that the transport has been reversed again to a southward condition. In fact, we had already switched yesterday (the two forecasts issued were 0 Sv and 1 Sv S, see Sep 09 Products). The 2 forecasts types we issued today thus correspond to an initial 1Sv southward transport and a zero initial net transport, to reflect the remote Typhoon influences. Of course, these boundary transports change with time, based on the interior flows, surface forcing and open boundary conditions. A second uncertainty source remains the impact of tidal effects on the mesoscale hydrographic and circulation features in the forecasts, especially just north of Taiwan.

From the OR1-2-3 data, SST data and our varied model simulations, there is some upwelling of deeper Kuroshio water on the shelf north of Taiwan and in the QPE area, with filaments being advected further north-eastward along the shelfbreak on the edge of the Kuroshio.

Acoustic simulations from each of these two dynamical simulations, with vertical sections of transmission loss (TL) and sound speed, can be found here.

Nowcasts and Forecasts of Environmental Conditions
Initial Transport 50m Temperature 50m Salinity 50m Velocity Complete set of Plots
Nowcast - 11 September Forecast - 12 September Nowcast - 11 September Forecast - 12 September Nowcast - 11 September Forecast - 12 September
0 Sv X
1.0Sv S X

Available NetCDF Files
0.0Sv Along Grid peout_0Sv10sep2008.nc.gz
Geographic peout_geo_0Sv10sep2008.nc.gz
1.0Sv S Along Grid peout_1SvS10sep2008.nc.gz
Geographic peout_geo_1SvS10sep2008.nc.gz

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