The ocean is a complex, constantly changing, highly dynamical system. Prediction capabilities are constantly being improved in order to better understand and forecast ocean properties for applications in science, industry, and maritime interests. Our overarching goal is to better predict the ocean environment in regions of complex topography with a continental shelf, shelfbreak, canyons and steep slopes using the MIT Multidisciplinary Simulation, Estimation and Assimilation Systems (MSEAS) primitive-equation ocean model. We did this by focusing on the complex region surrounding Taiwan, and the period of time immediately following the passage of Typhoon Morakot. This area and period were studied extensively as part of the intense observation period during August – September 2009 of the joint U.S. – Taiwan program Quantifying, Predicting, and Exploiting Uncertainty Department Research Initiative (QPE DRI). Typhoon Morakot brought an unprecedented amount of rainfall within a very short time period and in this research, we model and study the effects of this rainfall on Taiwan’s coastal oceans as a result of river discharge. We do this through the use of a river discharge model and a bulk river-ocean mixing model. We complete a sensitivity study of the primitive-equation ocean model simulations to the different parameters of these models. By varying the shape, size, and depth of the bulk mixing model footprint, and examining the resulting impacts on ocean salinity forecasts, we are able to determine an optimal combination of salinity relaxation factors for highest accuracy.

Congratulations to Jen Landry, LCDR USN, on her recent graduation! Jen received a SM from the MIT-WHOI Joint Program for her research on “Coastal Ocean Variability off the Coast of Taiwan in Response to Typhoon Morakot: River Forcing, Atmospheric Forcing and Cold Dome Dynamics” with our MSEAS group at MIT.

Congratulations to Abhinav Gupta from IIT Kanpur for completing his S. N. Bose Scholars Program with us this summer 2014. Abhinav completed original research on “Deterministic and Stochastic Modeling of Coupled Ocean Biological-Physical Dynamics” with our MSEAS group at MIT.

Congratulations to Jordan Benjamin for completing his RSI report and presentation on “Effects of Typhoon Morakot river discharges on the coastal Taiwan ocean system.” As a visiting high-school student from Atlanta, Jordan successfully completed his 2014 summer research with our MSEAS group at MIT.

Data-constrained dynamical ocean modeling for the purpose of detailed forecasting and prediction continues to evolve and improve in quality. Modeling methods and computational capabilities have each improved. The result is that mesoscale phenomena can be modeled with skill, given sufficient data. However, many submesoscale features are less well modeled and remain largely unpredicted from a deterministic event standpoint, and possibly also from a statistical property standpoint. A multi-institution project is underway with goals of uncovering more of the details of a few submesoscale processes, working toward better predictions of their occurrence and their variability. A further component of our project is application of the new ocean models to ocean acoustic modeling and prediction. This paper focuses on one portion of the ongoing work: Efforts to link nonhydrostatic-physics models of continental-shelf nonlinear internal wave evolution to data-driven regional models. Ocean front-related effects are also touched on.