This research is concerned with interdisciplinary modeling, data assimilation and dynamical studies in the Straits regions of the Philippines Archipelago. The general focus is to better understand, model and predict sub-mesoscale and mesoscale physical and biogeochemical dynamics in sea straits. The technical approach is based on interdisciplinary data assimilation using the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation scheme, quantitative model evaluation and selection through adaptive modeling, and sensitivity and dynamical process studies. The work and its results are expected to contribute to navy operations including the surveillance of transit routes, safety of man-based activities, management of autonomous vehicles, and overall tactical and strategic decision making under uncertainties in sensitive regions.

Specific objectives are to:

• Utilize and develop the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system for interdisciplinary data assimilation and uncertainty estimation with the physical Primitive-Equation (PE) and generalized biogeochemical model of the Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS)
• Study, describe and model the variability and dynamics of flow separations and associated eddies and filaments, of water mass evolutions and pathways, and of locally trapped waves
• Develop and implement schemes for parameter estimation and selection of model structures and parameterizations, and for high-resolution nested domains towards non-hydrostatic modeling