P.F.J. Lermusiaux, P.J. Haley, C. Mirabito, E. Mule Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Ocean Engineering Mechanical Engineering Cambridge, Massachusetts	MSEAS Deterministic Ocean Forecasts MSEAS Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts MSEAS Methods & Systems Atmos. Forecasts Data sources
This research is sponsored by the The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

GOFFISH Project Main Page

The MASTR collaborative sea experiment occurs in the Gulf of Mexico from February to April 2024. We employ our MIT-MSEAS data-assimilative Primitive-Equation (PE) submesoscale-to-regional-scale ocean-modeling system for real-time deterministic and probability forecasts of ocean fields and derived quantities. Specific objectives include (i) multi-resolution ensemble forecasts with initial conditions downscaled from multiple models and implicit 2-way nesting, (ii) mutual information forecasts for predictability studies, (iii) optimal adaptive sampling guidance for air and sea sensing platforms, and (iv) reachability forecasts for underwater vehicles. Finally, we provide varied data sets that we process. We thank all of the MASTR team members for their input and collaboration, namely Steve DiMarco, Andrew Dancer, Xiao Ge, Anthony Knap, Yun Liu, Sakib Mahmud, and Uchenna Chizaram Nwankwo (TAMU); Scott Glenn, Travis Miles, David Aragon, Kaycee Coleman, and Michael Smith (Rutgers); Michael Leber, Rafael Ramos, and Jill Storie (Woods Hole Group); Grant Stuart, Joseph Marble, and Paulo Barros (Fugro); Eric Chassignet (FSU); Amy Bower and Heather H. Furey (WHOI); Benjamin de la Cruz and Lynn Shay (Miami); M. J. Costa de Almeida Tenreiro, Enric Pallas Sanz, Julio Sheinbaum and Paula Pérez-Brunius (CICESE); Doug Wilson (UVI); Jan van Smirren (Ocean Sierra); Monreal Gómez María Adela and Román Ismael Contreras Morales (UNAM); and finally Michael Feldman and Megha Khadka (NAS). We also thank the HYCOM Consortium and Mercator Ocean for their ocean model fields, and NCEP for their atmospheric forcing data. Finally, we thank our MSEAS group members, and Yoland Gao and Wael Hajj Ali for help with the 2DSeaVizKit software.

Real-time MSEAS Forecasting

• MSEAS Deterministic Ocean Forecasts

  Real-Time Estimates of Present (16 Apr 0000Z) Environmental Conditions (initialized from downscaled Mercator)
  Gulf Modeling Domain				Sections Locations Overlaid on Bathymetrry
  Interactive Ocean Physics Forecast
  Optimal Flight Path Mutual-information (MI) Optimal flight path for February 20, which maximizes the MI between the surface velocity measured on February 20 and σT+velocity of the LC’s western wall and eddies on February 23.	2m Vorticity	0m Sigma-T	0m Sigma-T Unc.	Sec. 4 Temperature	Sec. 4 Temp. Unc.	Sec. 4 Salinity	Sec. 4 Salinity Unc.

   

    MSEAS tidally-forced forecasts initialized from downscaled Mercator

  Nowcast and Forecast Products with descriptive dynamics [Product details]

  Analyses and Forecasts Issued On

  February 2024

  March 2024

  April 2024

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  8 (1/12.5°)

  8 (1/25°)

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  Ocean Physics

  Horizontal Maps

  Central Forecast

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  Interactive Forecast

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  Vertical Sections

  Central Forecast

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    MSEAS tidally-forced forecasts initialized from downscaled HYCOM

  Nowcast and Forecast Products with descriptive dynamics [Product details]

  Analyses and Forecasts Issued On

  February 2024

  March 2024

  April 2024

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  Ocean Physics

  Horizontal Maps

  Central Forecast

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  Interactive Forecast

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  Vertical Sections

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• MSEAS Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts: Physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used to represent the dominant uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for T, S, u, v, w, and eta fields for the HYCOM and Mercator modeling system fields, in the MSEAS model parameters, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.

  Nowcast and Forecast Uncertainty Products with dynamics descriptions

  Probabilistic Analyses and Forecasts Issued On

  1.5 kt Velocity Probability

  February 2024

  March 2024

  April 2024

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  Probabilistic Ocean Physics

  Horizontal Maps

  Mean and Std. Dev.

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  Interactive Mean and Std. Dev. Forecast

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  Vertical Sections

  Mean and Std. Dev.

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  Hazardous Velocities Statistics

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• Mutual Information (MI) Optimal ROCIS Flight Paths: The objective of our optimal path planning is to maximize information about the western wall of the Loop Current (LC) and the associated (cyclonic) eddies.
  • Optimal path planning for ROCIS flights: Background Information
  • ROCIS Flight Parameter and Range Information
  • Summary and Description of Restrictions Applied when Pruning Candidate Flight Paths
  • Optimal ROCIS Flight Paths:

    Product	Verification Field When we target σT alone we optimize flights for information on the upper-layer eddies of the western wall. When we target σT and velocity we are interested in both the upper-layer eddies of the western wall and the full LC flow.	February 2024
    		12	14	15*	16	17*	19*	20
    Flight paths	σT	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
    	σT + V					X	X	X
    Cloud cover		X	X	X	X	X	X	X
    * = Cloudy day



• Glider Planning:

  Product	April 2024				Stommel Reachability Front Fct
  	2	5	8	9
  0-1000m Avg. Vel.	X	X		X
  Reachability Analysis Reachable sets and reachability front	X	X	X	X
  Stommel Glider Pickup		X		X
  SG652 Glider Pickup				X
  Reachability Prob.	X
  Gliders in Distress	X	X		X
  Virtual Gliders	X	X		X

  Product	February 2024				March 2024
  	14	15	17	29	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	20	22	26	29
  0-1000m Avg. Vel.	X	X	X	X		X			X			X					X					X	X	X	X
  Reachability Analysis Reachable sets and reachability front				X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  Reachability Prob.										X			X					X					X	X
  Gliders in Distress					X																	X	X	X	X
  Virtual Gliders																	X					X	X	X	X

 

• Methods and Systems: The probabilistic MIT-MSEAS Primitive-Equation (PE) ocean modeling system is utilized in real-time to provide ocean forecasts in the region. The modeling system was set-up in an implicit 2-way nesting configuration (1/12.5° resolution Gulf domain and 1/37.5° resolution process domains). The ocean forecasts are initialized from HYCOM or Mercator, downscaled to higher resolution and updated with ocean data from varied open sources of opportunity (ARGO floats, gliders, SST, etc.). Ensemble forecasts are initialized using ESSE procedures. These ocean simulations are forced by atmospheric flux fields forecast by the Global Forecast System (GFS) 0.25° or the North American 12km Model (NAM) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and by tidal forcing from TPXO8, but adapted to the bathymetry and coastlines. For ESSE probabilistic forecasts, initial conditions, model parameters, boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing and tidal forcing amplitudes and phases, are all perturbed according to their respective uncertainties.

 

• MIT-MSEAS PE Forecast skill: MSEAS forecasts compared with observed data

  Forecast Issue Date	MSEAS Fct. downscaled from X (MSEAS-X)	Data dates
  Feb 7	MSEAS-HYCOM	Feb06	Feb07
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb06	Feb07
  Feb 8	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb07	Feb08
  Feb 9	MSEAS-HYCOM	Feb07	Feb08	Feb09
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb07	Feb08	Feb09
  Feb 10	MSEAS-HYCOM	Feb08	Feb09	Feb10
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb08	Feb09	Feb10
  	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Feb08	Feb09	Feb10
  Feb 11	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb10	Feb11
  	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Feb10	Feb11
  Feb 13	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb12	Feb13
  	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Feb11	Feb12
  Feb 14	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb13	Feb14
  Feb 15	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb14	Feb15
  	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Feb13	Feb14	Feb15
  Feb 17	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb16	Feb17
  	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Feb16	Feb17	Feb18	Feb19	Feb20	Feb21
  Feb 29	MSEAS-Mercator	Feb28	Feb29
  Mar 02	MSEAS-Mercator	Mar01	Mar02
  Mar 05	MSEAS-Mercator	Mar03	Mar04
  	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Mar03	Mar04	Mar05
  Mar 09	MSEAS-HYCOM	Mar08	Mar09
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Mar08	Mar09
  Mar 10	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Mar08	Mar09	Mar10
  Mar 14	MSEAS-HYCOM	Mar13	Mar14
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Mar13	Mar14
  Mar 15	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Mar13	Mar14	Mar15
  Mar 20	MSEAS-HYCOM	Mar18	Mar19	Mar20
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Mar18	Mar19	Mar20
  Mar 22	MSEAS-HYCOM	Mar21	Mar22
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Mar21	Mar22
  	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Mar18	Mar19	Mar20	Mar21
  Mar 26	MSEAS-HYCOM	Mar25	Mar26
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Mar25	Mar26
  Mar 27	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Mar25	Mar26	Mar27
  Mar 29	MSEAS-HYCOM	Mar28	Mar29
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Mar28	Mar29
  Apr 02	MSEAS-HYCOM	Apr01	Apr02
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Apr01	Apr02
  Apr 03	MSEAS Probabilistic Fcts	Apr01	Apr02	Apr03
  Apr 05	MSEAS-HYCOM	Apr04	Apr05
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Apr04	Apr05
  Apr 09	MSEAS-HYCOM	Apr08	Apr09
  	MSEAS-Mercator	Apr08	Apr09

 

• MSEAS-Processed Data
  • Summary of all available data of opportunity:
    • Summary by type: January 1 to present
    • Locations with time: January 1 to present | February 1 to present
  • ARGO: January 1 to present
  • SeaGliders and Slocum Gliders, Location and profile summary: January 1 to present | March only | April only
  • NDBC SST Buoys: January 1 to present
  • SST (GHRSST MODIS, from PO.DAAC): January 1 to present
  • SSH (January 1 to present):
    • AVISO (NRT multi-satellite imagery): Along-Track ADT | Gridded ADT (0.25° resolution)
    • SWOT NRT Nadir Altimeter ADT

 

• MSEAS-processed atmospheric forcing flux forecasts:
  

  NCEP NAM 12km	January/February 2024
  Daily average wind stress, E-P, heat flux, and SW Radiation (from 0Z forecast each day)
  Flux snapshot plots (one 84-hr fct/day)					X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  Fct snapshot plots (Four 6-hour fcsts/day)	31	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29

  NCEP NAM 12km	March 2024
  Daily average wind stress, E-P, heat flux, and SW Radiation (from 0Z forecast each day)
  Flux snapshot plots (one 84-hr fct/day)	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  Fct snapshot plots (Four 6-hour fcsts/day)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

  NCEP NAM 12km	April 2024
  Daily average wind stress, E-P, heat flux, and SW Radiation (from 0Z forecast each day)
  Flux snapshot plots (one 84-hr fct/day)	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  Fct snapshot plots (Four 6-hour fcsts/day)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

  
  

  NCEP GFS 0.25°	January/February 2024
  Daily average wind stress, E-P, heat flux, and SW Radiation (from 0Z forecast each day)
  Flux snapshot plots (one 6-day fct/day)					X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  Fct snapshot plots (Four 6-hour fcsts/day)	31	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29

  NCEP GFS 0.25°	March 2024
  Daily average wind stress, E-P, heat flux, and SW Radiation (from 0Z forecast each day)
  Flux snapshot plots (one 6-day fct/day)	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  Fct snapshot plots (Four 6-hour fcsts/day)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

  NCEP GFS 0.25°	April 2024
  Daily average wind stress, E-P, heat flux, and SW Radiation (from 0Z forecast each day)
  Flux snapshot plots (one 6-day fct/day)	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  Fct snapshot plots (Four 6-hour fcsts/day)	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20



• Woods Hole Group Mapper

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Data sources

• Initialization and BCs
  • HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) Description (HYCOM Consortium)
  • Operational Mercator Ocean 1/12° Model Output (Copernicus Marine Data Store)
• Ocean synoptic
  • ARGO float data access
  • UGOS-3 gliders ERDDAP/TableDAP page
  • National Data Buoy Center station selection
  • HF Radar: UGOS-3 - HFR: Yucatan - 6km - Sea Surface Currents
  • SST Images/Data: GHRSST Level 2P (MODIS) (PO.DAAC)
  • SSH:
    • AVISO+ (distributed by CMEMS) L3 NRT along-track SSH
    • AVISO+ (distributed by CMEMS) L4 NRT 0.25° gridded SSH
    • SWOT Level 2 Nadir Altimeter Interim Geophysical Data Record with Waveforms (PO.DAAC)
    • SWOT Level 2 KaRIn Low Rate Sea Surface Height Data Product (PO.DAAC) Not real time
• Ocean historical/climatological
  • Data sets and products NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
    • World Ocean Database (WOD)
• Atmospheric forcing
  • Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Real-Time Forecasts
  • National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) products:
    • Global Forecast System Model: version 4 (GFS), at 0.5 degree resolution (GFSp5) and also at 0.25 degree resolution (GFSp25)
      • Direct link to GFSp5/GFSp25 model output
      • NOMADS - NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (main page)
      • General information about the GFS model
      • Index of GFSp5/GFSp25 GRIB records

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