P.F.J. Lermusiaux, P.J. Haley Jr., C. Mirabito, E. Mule, M. Robin Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Ocean Engineering Mechanical Engineering Cambridge, Massachusetts	MSEAS Deterministic Ocean Forecasts MSEAS Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts MSEAS Methods & Systems Atmos. Forecasts Data sources
This research is sponsored by the Office of Naval Research as part of the Task Force Ocean (TFO).

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The NESMA collaborative sea experiment occurs in the New England Seamount Chain (Atlantic Ocean) with an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) during July 2024. We employ our MIT-MSEAS data-assimilative Primitive-Equation submesoscale-to-regional-scale ocean-modeling system and Parabolic Equation acoustic models for real-time deterministic and probability forecasts of ocean and acoustic fields and derived quantities. Specific objectives include (i) multi-resolution ocean ensemble forecasts with initial conditions downscaled from multiple models and implicit 2-way nesting, (ii) forward and backward reachability forecasts for underwater vehicles and floats, aiming for optimal coverage, (iii) ocean acoustics predictions in the seamount chain region, and (iv) mutual information forecasts for predictability studies and optimal adaptive sampling guidance. Finally, we provide varied data sets that we process. We thank all of the NESMA team members for their input and collaboration, namely Ying-Tsong Lin (Scripps), John Colosi (NPS), Avijit Gangopadhyay (UMass Dartmouth), Tom Curtin (UW); Magdalena Andres, Tim Duda (WHOI); Chad Smith (Penn State); Jason Chaytor (USGS); Donglai Gong, Fiona Gordon, Jack Slater, Ricardo Bourdon (VIMS); Matt Rutherford, Nicole Trenholm (Ocean Research Project); Matthew Dzieciuch, William Hodgkiss (Scripps); Jake Dossett, Zoltan Szuts (UW); John Osborne (NRL); and Robert Headrick (ONR).

Real-time MSEAS Forecasting

• MSEAS Deterministic Ocean Forecasts

  Real-Time Estimates of Present (02 Aug 0000Z) Environmental Conditions (initialized from downscaled Mercator)
  Interactive Ocean Physics Forecast				Section Locations Overlaid on Bathymetry
  Interactive Probabilistic Ocean Physics Forecast
  Float/Glider Reachability	2m Vorticity	0m Sound Speed	0m SSp Unc	Sec 1 Sound Speed	Sec 1 SSp Unc	Sec 2 Sound Speed	Sec 2 SSp Unc

   

   

    MSEAS tidally-forced forecasts initialized from downscaled Mercator

  Nowcast and Forecast Products with descriptive dynamics [Product details]

  Analyses and Forecasts Issued On

  July 2024

  11

  13

  16

  17

  19

  21

  22

  25

  27

  29

  Ocean Physics

  Horizontal Maps

  Central Forecast

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  Interactive Forecast

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  Vertical Sections

  Central Forecast

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X



• MSEAS Probabilistic Ocean Forecasts: To obtain the large-ensemble 2-way nested forecasts, physics-balanced stochastic models and ESSE dominant subspace decompositions are used. They represent the dominant uncertainties in the initial and boundary conditions for the MSEAS T, S, u, v, w, and η fields downscaled from HYCOM and Mercator, in the MSEAS model parameters, in the atmospheric surface forcing flux fields, and in the tidal forcing parameters.

  Nowcast and Forecast Uncertainty Products with dynamics descriptions			Probabilistic Analyses and Forecasts Issued On				2 kt+ Velocity Probability
  			July 2024
  			16	19	21	25
  Probabilistic Ocean Physics	Horizontal Maps	Mean and Std. Dev.	X	X	X	X
  	Interactive Probabilistic Forecast		X	X	X	X
  	Vertical Sections	Mean and Std. Dev.	X	X	X	X
  	Gulf Stream Velocity Statistics		X	X	X	X
  	Gulf Stream Location Statistics		X	X	X	X
  Mutual Information	Most Informative Observations					X

 

• Glider and Float Planning:

  Product	July 2024										Reachability Front Fct
  	11	13	16	17	19	21	22	25	27	29
  0-1000m Avg. Vel.	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  Reachability Analysis Reachable sets and reachability front	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  Float Reachability Analysis

 

• Ocean Acoustics:

  Nowcast and Forecast Products		Analyses and Forecasts Issued On
  		July 2024
  		17	19	21	25	27
  Acoustics	NESMA Acoustic Sections	X	X	X	X	X
  	Special Ocean Acoustic Products	X	X		X	X

 

• Methods and Systems: The probabilistic MIT-MSEAS Primitive-Equation (PE) ocean modeling system is utilized in real-time to provide ocean forecasts in the region. The modeling system was set-up in an implicit 2-way nesting configuration (600m res. seamount, 1800m res. Gulf Stream, and 2.4km res. NW-Atlantic domains). The ocean forecasts are initialized from HYCOM or Mercator, downscaled to higher resolution and updated with ocean data from varied open sources of opportunity (ARGO floats, gliders, SST, etc.). Ocean simulations are forced by merged atmospheric flux fields forecasts from the High-Resolution Window 5km Model (HIRESW) and Global Forecast System (GFS) 0.25° of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and by tidal forcing from TPXO8, but adapted to the bathymetry and coastlines. The ESSE ensemble probabilistic forecasts are initialized using ESSE procedures with model parameters, boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing and tidal forcing amplitudes and phases all perturbed according to their respective uncertainties.

 

• MIT-MSEAS PE Forecast skill: MSEAS forecasts compared with observed data

  Forecast Issue Date	T/S Profile Data Dates						T/S Profile Data Overlays
  Jul 21	Jul20	Jul21	Jul22	Jul23	Jul24	Jul25	X
  Jul 22	Jul20	Jul21	Jul22	Jul23	Jul24	Jul25	X
  Jul 25	Jul23	Jul24	Jul25	Jul26	Jul27	Jul28	X
  Jul 25 (Prob. Fcts)	Jul23	Jul24	Jul25	Jul26	Jul27	Jul28
  Jul 27	Jul25	Jul26	Jul27	Jul28	Jul29	Jul30	X
  Jul 29	Jul27	Jul28	Jul29	Jul30	Jul31	Aug01	X

 

• MSEAS-Processed Data
  • Summary of all available data of opportunity:
    • Summary by type: June 15 to present
    • Locations with time: June 15 to present | July 1 to present
  • Data of opportunity:
    • Argo profiles:
      • Argo float summary (profiles by float ID, dive depth, and time)
      • Daily profiles: June 15 to present
      • Profile dot plots in 10-day windows (time window [d-10day,d] in directory date d)
    • Spray and Slocum gliders (Source: IOOS Glider DAC):
      • Locations with time and vertical T/S/density sections: May 15 to present
      • Locations with time and depth-averaged velocity: June 15 to present
    • UW ALTO and APEX Floats Locations with time: Full view | Zoomed view
    • NDBC Buoys: June 15 to present (includes NCEP HIRESW 5km values for comparison)
    • SST:
      • MetOffice/CMEMS OSTIA SST Analysis (daily 0.05°): June 15 to present
      • GOES-16 SST (hourly, 2km) shown daily at 0Z: June 15 to present
      • Jenifer Clark's Gulf Stream Analysis from Prof. Avijit Gangopadhyay
    • SSH:
      • AVISO (DUACS-processed NRT multi-satellite; Source: CMEMS): June 15 to present
        • Along-track ADT (7km; daily; filtered)
        • Gridded ADT via OI (0.25°; daily)
      • SWOT Swath ADT (Source: PO.DAAC): June 15 to present (2km; daily)
    • SSC: Multi-sensor DINEOF global gap-filled Chl-a (June 15 to present; 9km; daily)
    • Oleander XBT profiles (most recent sections: May 31-Jun 2, Jun 28-Jul 1, Aug 2-4)
    • HF Radar (HFRnet) 6km gridded velocity:

      Product	Month	Day of month
      Snapshots	July 2024	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

 

• MSEAS-processed atmospheric forcing flux forecasts:
  

  Combined (merged) NCEP HIRESW 5km and GFS 0.25°: July 2024
  Daily average wind stress, E-P, heat flux, and SW Radiation (from 0Z forecast each day)
  	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31
  Flux snapshot plots (1 fct issued daily)	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X



• Ocean Region, Seamount Maps, and Acoustic Sections
  • MSEAS-processed seamount maps and acoustic sections

Data sources

• Initialization and BCs
  • HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) Description (HYCOM Consortium)
  • Operational Mercator Ocean 1/12° Model Output (Copernicus Marine Data Store)
• Ocean synoptic
  • ARGO float data access
  • Gliders: IOOS ERDDAP/TableDAP page
  • National Data Buoy Center station selection
  • HF Radar: HFRnet THREDDS server
  • SST products and data:
    • Global Ocean OSTIA Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (CMEMS)
    • GHRSST Level 2P (MODIS) (PO.DAAC)
    • SSH:
      • AVISO+ (distributed by CMEMS) L3 NRT along-track SSH
      • AVISO+ (distributed by CMEMS) L4 NRT 0.25° gridded SSH
      • SWOT Level 2 KaRIn Low Rate Sea Surface Height Data Product, Version 2.0
  • Ocean historical/climatological
    • Data sets and products NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
      • World Ocean Database (WOD)
  • Atmospheric forcing
    • Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Real-Time Forecasts
    • National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) products:
      • Global Forecast System Model: version 4 (GFS), at 0.5 degree resolution (GFSp5) and also at 0.25 degree resolution (combo)
        • Direct link to GFSp5/combo model output
        • NOMADS - NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (main page)
        • General information about the GFS model
        • Index of GFSp5/combo GRIB records

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