Lermusiaux, P.F.J, C. Evangelinos, R. Tian, P.J. Haley, J.J. McCarthy, N.M. Patrikalakis, A.R. Robinson and H. Schmidt, 2004. Adaptive Coupled Physical and Biogeochemical Ocean Predictions: A Conceptual Basis. Refereed invited manuscript, F. Darema (Ed.), Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 3038, 685-692.
Physical and biogeochemical ocean dynamics can be intermittent
and highly variable, and involve interactions on multiple scales.
In general, the oceanic fields, processes and interactions that matter thus
vary in time and space. For efficient forecasting, the structures and parameters
of models must evolve and respond dynamically to new data injected
into the executing prediction system. The conceptual basis of this
adaptive modeling and corresponding computational scheme is the subject
of this presentation. Specifically, we discuss the process of adaptive
modeling for coupled physical and biogeochemical ocean models. The
adaptivity is introduced within an interdisciplinary prediction system.
Model-data misfits and data assimilation schemes are used to provide
feedback from measurements to applications and modify the runtime behavior
of the prediction system. Illustrative examples in Massachusetts
Bay and Monterey Bay are presented to highlight ongoing progress.