Environmental Ocean and Plume Modeling for Deep Sea Mining in the Bismarck Sea.
A pressing environmental question facing the ocean
is the potential impact of possible deep-sea mining activities.
This work presents our initial results in developing an ocean
and plume modeling system for the Bismark Sea where deep
sea mining operations will probably take place. We employ the
MSEAS modeling system to both simulate the ocean and to
downscale initial conditions from a global system (HYCOM) and
tidal forcing from the global TPXO-8 Atlas. We found that at least
1.5 km resolution was needed to adequately resolve the multiscale
flow fields. In St. Georges channel, the interaction between
the tides, background currents, and underlying density fields
increased the subtidal flows. Comparing to historical transport
estimates, we showed that tidal forcing is needed to maintain the
correct subtidal transport through that Channel. Comparisons
with past simulations and measured currents all showed good
agreement between the MSEAS hindcasts. Quantitative comparisons
made between our hindcasts and independent synoptic
ARGO profiles showed that the hindcasts beat persistence by
33% to 50%. These comparisons demonstrated that the MSEAS
current estimates were useful for assessing plume advection. Our
Lagrangian transport and coherence analyses indicate that the
specific location and time of the releases can have a big impact
on their dispersal. Our results suggest that ocean mining plumes
can be best mitigated by managing releases in accord with such
ocean modeling and Lagrangian transport forecasts. Real-time
integrated mining-modeling-sampling is likely to provide the most
effective mitigation strategies.