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Fish Modeling and Bayesian Learning for the Lakshadweep Islands

Gupta, A., P.J. Haley, D.N. Subramani, and P.F.J. Lermusiaux, 2019. Fish Modeling and Bayesian Learning for the Lakshadweep Islands. In: OCEANS '19 MTS/IEEE Seattle, 27-31 October 2019, doi: 10.23919/OCEANS40490.2019.8962892

In fish modeling, a significant amount of uncertainty exists in the parameter values, parameterizations, functional form of model equations, and even the state variables themselves. This is due to the complexity and lack of understanding of the processes involved, as well as the measurement sparsity. These challenges motivate the present proof-of-concept study to simultaneously learn and estimate the state variables, parameters, and model equations from sparse observations. We employ a novel dynamics-based Bayesian learning framework for high-dimensional, coupled fish-biogeochemical-physical partial-differential equations (PDEs) models, allowing the simultaneous inference of the augmented state variables and parameters. After reviewing the status of ecosystem modeling in the coastal oceans, we first complete a series of PDE-based learning experiments that showcase capabilities for fish-biogeochemical-physical model equations and parameters, using nonhydrostatic Boussinesq flows past a seamount. We then showcase realistic ocean primitive-equation simulations and analyses, using fish catch data  for the Lakshadweep islands in India. These modeling and learning efforts could improve fisheries management from a standpoint of sustainability and efficiency.