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Real-time Modeling and Data Assimilation, Reanalyses, and Subduction Dynamics in the Balearic Sea

In the winter/spring of 2022, the CALYPSO DRI team carried out an intensive multi-platform field experiment to investigate the three-dimensional subduction pathways in the Balearic Sea. As part of this effort, we provided real-time, high-resolution, multiscale deterministic and ensemble forecasts utilizing the Multidisciplinary Simulation, Estimation, and Assimilation System Primitive Equation model (MSEAS-PE) configured for 900 m and 300 m stand-alone and nested configurations. The forecasts were downscaled from the larger WMOP western Mediterranean forecasts. Probabilistic forecasts (200-300 members) were made using the Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) system. The skill of these forecasts was assessed by comparison with independent in situ data, satellite data, and drifter tracks using bias and RMSE metrics and by comparison with features using qualitative and quantitative analyses. The 3D subduction pathways were diagnosed using a combination of flow maps, finite-time Lyapunov exponents, dilation maps, and 3D subduction maps computed from the flow maps. During the experiment, we used Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) and Dynamically Orthogonal (DO) ensemble filters to assimilate the Lagrangian surface drifter position data in real-time, which improved the RMSE comparison to T/S data by 13% in the upper 150m. Follow-on reanalyses further improve the comparisons to data and are used to explore and diagnose the 3D subduction dynamics.