Verification and Training of Real-Time Forecasting of Multi-Scale Ocean Dynamics for MREA
The Harvard Ocean Prediction System (HOPS) provides real-time and hindcast, multi-scale oceanic field estimates for Maritime
Rapid Environmental Assessment (MREA). Results of aspects of the validation, calibration and verification of HOPS for MREA03
and MREA04 are presented, with implications for future MREA exercises. A new method of model training, via bias correction
through the use of limited data, was applied to MREA03 and shown to produce significant forecast improvement while reducing
computational requirements. Advances in, and the demand for, adaptive modeling, require that aspects of validation, calibration
and verification be carried out in real-time in order to expand the usage and relevance of dynamical forecast-based MREA tactical
decision aids