Bayesian inference of stochastic dynamical models
A new methodology for Bayesian inference of stochastic dynamical models is developed.
The methodology leverages the dynamically orthogonal (DO) evolution equations
for reduced-dimension uncertainty evolution and the Gaussian mixture model
DO filtering algorithm for nonlinear reduced-dimension state variable inference to
perform parallelized computation of marginal likelihoods for multiple candidate models,
enabling efficient Bayesian update of model distributions. The methodology also
employs reduced-dimension state augmentation to accommodate models featuring uncertain
parameters. The methodology is applied successfully to two high-dimensional,
nonlinear simulated fluid and ocean systems. Successful joint inference of an uncertain
spatial geometry, one uncertain model parameter, and 0(105) uncertain state
variables is achieved for the first. Successful joint inference of an uncertain stochastic
dynamical equation and 0(105) uncertain state variables is achieved for the second.
Extensions to adaptive modeling and adaptive sampling are discussed.