Precision Ocean Interrogation, Navigation, and Timing (POINT)

BBN POSYDON Sea Ex 18

Mid-Atlantic/New York Bight Region - August 2018

P.F.J. Lermusiaux, P.J. Haley,
C. Mirabito, J. Coulin,
W. Ali, A. Dutt,
D. Subramani, M. Merhi
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Center for Ocean Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Cambridge, Massachusetts

E. Dorfman, A. Laferriere,
A. Kofford, G. Shepard, M. Goldsmith
Raytheon BBN Technologies
K. Heaney, E. Coelho
J. Boyle, J. Murray
OASIS, Inc.
L. Freitag, A. Morozov
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Real-time modeling

Data sources

POSYDON-POINT Project Main Page

The POSYDON Sea Exercise 2018 occurs in the Middle Atlantic - New York Bight Region for August 2018. In collaboration with the POINT team, our objectives are to utilize the MIT MSEAS system to: (i) forecast the probability of high-resolution ocean fields using our ESSE methodology; (ii) transfer the corresponding distribution of the sound speed field to three-dimensional underwater sound propagation uncertainties; (iii) collect sufficient data to evaluate the accuracy of the Bayesian tomographic inversion and of its posterior estimates of range between transducers and sound velocity profiles (SVPs). We thank the POINT team members for their collaboration, the HYCOM team for their real-time ocean fields, and the NCEP GFS team for their real-time atmospheric flux forecasts.

This research is sponsored by DARPA.

Real-time MSEAS Ensemble Forecasting

MSEAS ocean ensemble ESSE forecasts

Interactive Maps of Real-Time MSEAS ocean central forecast and ensemble ESSE uncertainty forecasts.

Real-Time Estimates of Present (26 Aug 0000Z) Environmental Conditions
Sec. 1 (Mooring P4 to Mooring P5)		Sec. 2 (Mooring P5 to Mooring P2)		Horizontal Maps
Sound Speed	Sound Speed Uncertainty	Sound Speed	Sound Speed Uncertainty	2m Vorticity Full domain	100m Sound Speed Uncertainty - Ops. area

Nowcast and Forecast Products
with dynamics and uncertainty descriptions

Analyses and Forecasts Issued On

August

19
8p

Ocean Physics

Horizontal Maps

Central Forecast

Mean and Uncertainty

Operational Vertical Sections

Central Forecast

Mean and Uncertainty

Interactive Nowcast and Forecast Products
with dynamics and uncertainty descriptions

Analyses and Forecasts Issued On

August

19
8p

Ocean Physics

Interactive Maps

Central Forecast

Mean and Uncertainty

Methods and Systems: The probabilistic MIT-MSEAS Primitive-Equation (PE) ocean modeling system is utilized in real-time to provide ocean field and uncertainty forecasts for underwater GPS exercises in the Mid-Atlantic/New York Bight region. The MSEAS modeling system is set-up in an implicit 2-way nesting configuration. The ocean forecasts are initialized from HYCOM, downscaled to higher resolution and updated with ocean data from varied open sources of opportunity (CTDs, ARGO floats, gliders, SST, etc.) and with our MSEAS feature models for additional corrections. For uncertainty predictions, ensemble forecasts are initialized using our multiscale Error Subspace Statistical Estimation (ESSE) procedures. These ocean simulations are forced by atmospheric flux fields forecast by the GFS 0.25° model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and tidal forcing from TPXO8, but updated for the high-resolution bathymetry and coastlines.

MSEAS-processed atmospheric forcing flux forecasts:

GFS 0.25°	August 2018
Daily average wind stress, E-P, heat flux, and SW Radiation (from 0Z forecast each day)
Flux snapshot plots (a single 60hr fct issued daily)	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Forecast snapshot plots (Four 6-hour forecasts/day)	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24

Comparison of wind, temperature, and pressure data with buoy data

Marine Weather Forecasts:

HF Radar

HF Radar	August 2018
Velocity Snapshots	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
24-hour Average Velocity	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

SST Images
- NOAA Satellite, JHU APL (July 12 to present)

Acknowledgements: We thank the POINT team members for their collaboration, the HYCOM team for their real-time ocean fields, and the NCEP GFS team for their real-time atmospheric flux forecasts (Matthew Pyle, Eric Rogers, Geoff DiMego, and Arun Chawla of NCEP for help and support for atmospheric forcing data). We also thank NOAA for supplying buoy data, the JHU APL for providing processed SST images, and Tamara Holzwarth-Davis and Paula Fratantoni of NOAA for support for ocean historical/climatological data from NMFS. We also thank the Rutgers Center for Ocean Observing Leadership for their AUV data, as well as the WHOI Autonomous Systems Lab (ASL) for their SDOTS WaveGlider data. Finally, we thank the OOI and the NOAA ECOA2 teams for their data.

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Data sources

Ocean synoptic
- The Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP)
  - Data Access
    - Real-Time Data
- National Data Buoy Center Real-Time & historical data from moored buoy & C-MAN stations
- SST Images
- CFRF - WHOI Shelf Research Fleet (Fishermen data)
- SCRIPPS HF-Radar (HFRnet) THREDDS Server
- HF Radar Coverage Maps
Ocean historical/climatological
- NOAA/NOS tidal elevation stations
- CO-OPS current station data (historical)
- The Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP)
  - Data Access
    - Best-Copy Data
- Data sets & products NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
  - World Ocean Database (WOD)
- Northeast Fisheries Science Center Ecosystem Processes Division Oceanography Branch NMFS. Includes data from CTDs, fish hauls, hull-mounted sensors, eMOLT moorings, drifters, etc.
  - Hydrographic Conditions of the Northeast Continental Shelf Northeast Fisheries Science Center Oceanography Branch
    - yearly data files
  - Data/Mapping Interface Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Oceanography Branch
Atmospheric forcing
- Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Real-Time Forecasts
- National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) products:
  - High-Resolution Window (HIRESW) (5 km resolution):
  - Global Forecast System Model: version 4 (GFS), at 0.5 degree resolution (GFSp5) and also at 0.25 degree resolution (GFSp25)
- The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA Intrim (global Re-Analysis)
  - General information
  - Data access
- ESSO - Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (TropFlux project):
  - Main page
  - Additional TropFlux links
- Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)
  - File naming convention
  - Variables
- Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) products:
  - Real-time data
  - NAVGEM 0.5: Real-time and historical data

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