Quantifying, Predicting and Exploiting Uncertainty - Ongoing MSEAS Research

P.F.J. Lermusiaux, P.J. Haley, Jr.,
W.G. Leslie, O. Logutov

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Center for Ocean Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Cambridge, Massachusetts


This research sponsored by the
Office of Naval Research.

2009 QPE IOP Real-Time Results
2008 QPE Pilot Study Real-Time Results
Background information
MIT Activities and Findings
Additional QPE Links
All Presentations from QPE Meetings

Background information

Building on discoveries made over the previous five years in probabilistic sonar performance prediction, integrated ocean-acoustic modeling, multidisciplinary data assimilation, ocean predictability, multi-scale custom climatologies and autonomous underwater platforms, the Quantifying, Predicting and Exploiting Uncertainty initiative will integrate these discoveries to improve performance prediction and reduce sonar detection uncertainties. To demonstrate how the components fit together and how a future end-to-end system could work in support of fleet exercises, an integrated field demonstration is scheduled for 2009 in this East China Sea - Taiwan - Kuroshio region.

The DRI objectives are to:
  1. Further develop and integrate methodologies, and perform field demonstration, of the use of in-situ data together with integrated (ocean, TL and ambient noise) assimilative predictive models and adaptive sampling methods to improve sonar system performance and prediction.
  2. Learn how to assimilate deep water acoustic observations to assist in initialization of regional ocean models.
  3. Study the limits of predictability of a meandering jet interacting with topography.
  4. Study the connection between nonlinear internal wave activity on the shelf and the meandering jet adjacent to the shelf.
  5. Map out a Concept of Operations (CONOPS) for an end-to-end evaluation of acoustic impact and identify which operational naval elements should participate in each step.

Important references for the QPE area


Ongoing MIT activities and findings

QPE Intensive Observation Period - August/September 2009 - Main Page with all Real-Time results

QPE Pilot Study - August/September 2008 - Main Page with all Real-Time results

Synopsis Presentation of MIT QPE 2008 Pilot Study results

Research simulations

Presentations

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Additional QPE Links

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All presentations from various QPE Meetings (WHOI Site)

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