Quantifying, Predicting and Exploiting Uncertainty

MSEAS QPE IOP 2009 Real-Time Results

P.F.J. Lermusiaux, P.J. Haley, Jr.,
W.G. Leslie, O. Logutov, J. Xu, A. Agarwal

Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Center for Ocean Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Cambridge, Massachusetts

This research sponsored by the Office of Naval Research.

Real-Time Analyses and Forecasts
IOP 2009 information
Modeling and Data Links
Additional IOP 2009 Links
Preparation and Plans
Final Atmospheric Forcing Fields
Accessibility

Collaborators: G. Gawarkiewicz, P. Abbot, C.-S. Chiu, K. Heaney, T. Duda,J. Sen, B. Cornuelle, J. Lynch, P. Niiler, L. Centurioni, C. Lee, R.-C. Lien, T. Sanford, L. Mayer, B. Calder, Y.-T. Lin

QPE IOP 2009 - August/September 2009

Real-Time Estimates of Present (10 September 0000Z/0800CST) Environmental Conditions in and around the QPE Domain
50m Temperature	50m Salinity	50m Velocity	50m (Zoom) Temperature	50m (Zoom) Salinity	50m (Zoom) Velocity

Nowcast and Forecast Products
with dynamics and uncertainty descriptions Analyses and Forecasts Issued On

August September

18 20 22 24 26 28 29 30 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Ocean Physics X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Ocean Physics Uncertainty X X X X X X X

Acoustics 3-D TL Variability X X X X X X X X X X X X

Nx2D Canyon Forecast X

3-D Canyon TL and Modal Variability X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Model Output Files X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Movies 25, 50m Velocities: 18-22 Aug. 25, 50m Velocities: 23-30 Aug. Vertical Sections: 4-8 Sept.

Daily Summaries X X X X X X X X

Daily Reports: Physics, Acoustics and Adaptive Sampling X X X X X X X

Synoptic Data

SeaSoar Data
Comparison of SeaSoar Data to Model Results
OR2 and OR3 Initialization Data
Analysis of OR2 and OR3 data from Jan Sen at the Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic Sciences, National Central University, Taiwan.
UW-APL SeaGliders Data - MIT Site
UW-APL SeaGliders - UW-APL Site
All Scripps Drifter Tracks and Data MIT Site
Restrained Drifter Tracks and Data Courtesy L. Centurioni and P. Niiler

Background information: Cruise Plan Data Format

R/V Revelle Realtime Information

Daily Reports on Environment and Acoustic Forecasts and Dynamics with Adaptive Sampling

Daily reports: Detailed analyses of the environment (physics and acoustics) and recommendations for environmental sampling are provided on this page.

MSEAS Barotropic Tidal Predictions

Barotropic tidal estimates are obtained from the solution of shallow water equations over high resolution bathymetry. The computational code is described in Logutov (2008) and Logutov and Lermusiaux (2008). More information on the barotropic tidal calculations can be found on our tidal web page.

The barotropic tidal flow field over the period 18 Aug 00Z - 16 Sep 00Z is shown in the set of movies found here