loader graphic

Loading content ...

NSF-ALPHA Virtual Forecasting Exercises 2017

Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard – June-July 2017

P.F.J. Lermusiaux, P.J. Haley, S. Jana, C. Mirabito,
C. Kulkarni, A. Dutt, A. Gupta
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Center for Ocean Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Cambridge, Massachusetts

Real-time modeling
Data sources

NSF-ALPHA Project Main Page

The NSF-ALPHA 2017 Virtual Forecasting Exercises occured in the Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard coastal region during June 14-16, 2017, and July 18-21, 2017, periods. The MIT-MSEAS Primitive-Equation (PE) ocean-modeling system is utilized in real-time to provide ocean forecasts for Lagrangian transport and coherent structure analyses in the region. The ocean forecasts are initialized using historical and synoptic ocean CTD data from the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO), SST images from the Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Lab (JHU APL), and other data from varied sources of opportunity. These ocean simulations are forced by atmospheric flux fields forecast by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

Our longer-term goal is to utilize our modeling systems for stochastic Lagrangian predictions and hazards assessment and mitigation. The specific objectives of the real-time exercises are to: (i) forecast the regional high-resolution ocean fields and their probability, using our ESSE methodology; (ii) utilize these fields and our Lagrangian methods to forecast Lagrangian Coherent Structures and Coherent Sets; (iii) forecast the probability and quantify the uncertainty of such Lagrangian quantities using stochastic differential equations. We thank all of the NSF-ALPHA team members for their inputs and collaboration.

This research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Real-time MSEAS Forecasting

Top of page

Data sources

Top of page