P.F.J. Lermusiaux, P.J. Haley, S. Jana, C. Mirabito, C. Kulkarni, A. Dutt, A. Gupta, W. Ali Massachusetts Institute of Technology Center for Ocean Engineering Mechanical Engineering Cambridge, Massachusetts

Real-time modeling Data sources

NSF-ALPHA Project Main Page

The NSF-ALPHA 2017 Real-Time Pilot Sea Exercise occurs in the Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard coastal region during August 11-18, 2017.

The specific objectives of the real-time pilot exercise are to: (i) forecast the regional high-resolution ocean fields and their probability, using our ESSE methodology; (ii) utilize these fields and our Lagrangian methods to forecast Lagrangian Coherent Structures and Coherent Sets; (iii) forecast the probability and quantify the uncertainty of such Lagrangian quantities using stochastic differential equations, and (iv) provide quantitative guidance on ocean dynamics, optimal drifter deployments and optimal adaptive sampling. We thank all of the NSF-ALPHA team members for their inputs and collaboration.

This research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

Real-time MSEAS Forecasting

• MSEAS Ocean Forecasts

  Real-Time Estimates of Present (20 Aug 0000Z) Environmental Conditions
  Martha's Vineyard Modeling Domain (200 m resolution, Implicit-2-way Nested)					MVCO Section (200 m resolution)
  Temperature	2m Vorticity	Forward FTLE	Backward FTLE	Drifter Trajectories	Temperature	Salinity
  Shelf Modeling Domain (600 m resolution, Implicit-2-way Nested)					MVCO Section (600 m resolution)
  Temperature	2m Vorticity	Forward FTLE	Backward FTLE	Drifter Trajectories	Temperature	Salinity

   

  • MSEAS Daily Prediction Summary and Lagrangian Analysis

   

  Nowcast and Forecast Products with dynamics descriptions

  Analyses and Forecasts Issued On

  August 2017

  12

  13

  14 8am

  14 5pm

  15 8am

  15 5pm

  16 8am

  16 5pm

  17 8am

  17 5pm

  18 8am

  18 5pm

  Ocean Physics

  Horizontal Maps

  Central Forecast

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  Mean and Uncertainty

  X

  Operational Vertical Section

  Central Forecast

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  Mean and Uncertainty

  X

  Lagrangian Coherent Structures

  LCS Maps

  Central Forecast

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  Mean and Uncertainty

  X

  X

  Drifters

  Trajectories (0m, 12m, and 17m)

  Central Forecast

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  Ensemble Forecast

  Special Lagrangian Products

  Drifter release around No Man's Land

  X

  Drifter release for N-MV coastal current

  X

  X

  X

  X

  South Beach active drifter

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  X

  Recovery of Drifters

  X

  Dye Release Advisory

  X

  X

  Lagrangian Forecast Skill Evaluation

  X

 

• Methods and Systems: The MIT-MSEAS Primitive-Equation (PE) ocean modeling system is utilized in real-time to provide ocean forecasts for Lagrangian transport and coherent structure analyses in the region. The modeling system was set-up in an implicit 2-way nesting configuration (200m resolution Martha's Vineyard domain and 600m resolution Shelf domain). Ensemble forecasts were initialized using ESSE procedures. The ocean forecasts are initialized using historical and synoptic ocean CTD data from the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO), SST images from the Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Lab (JHU APL), and other data from varied sources of opportunity. These ocean simulations are forced by atmospheric flux fields forecast by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and tidal forcing from TPXO8, but adapted to the high-resolution bathymetry and coastlines.
• MSEAS-processed atmospheric forcing flux forecasts:
  

  NCEP NAM 3km	August 2017
  Forecast snapshot plots	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
  Forecast data files (all fields)	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z
  	06Z	06Z	06Z	06Z	06Z	06Z	06Z	06Z	06Z	06Z	06Z	06Z
  	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z
  	18Z	18Z	18Z	18Z	18Z	18Z	18Z	18Z	18Z	18Z	18Z	18Z
  Daily average wind stress, E-P, heat flux, and SW Radiation
  Flux snapshot plots	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20

  
  

  NCEP HIRESW 5km	August 2017
  Forecast snapshot plots	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
  Forecast data files (all fields)	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z	00Z
  	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z	12Z

  
  
  • Comparison of wind, temperature, and pressure data with buoy data
  • Comparison of wind, temperature, and pressure data with MVCO data

 

• WHOI HF Radar data:

  WHOI HF Radar	August 2017
  Velocity Snapshots	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
  24-hour Average Velocity	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
  62-hour Average Velocity	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

 

• SST Images
  • NOAA Satellite, JHU APL (August 1, 2017 to present)

 

• MSEAS-processed External Data
  • MVCO ocean synoptic data
• Bathymetry and Model Domain
  • Comparison of bathymetric data
  • Model domain resolution, extents, bathymetry
  • Nested domain resolution, extents, and bathymetry
• Additional information
  • Marine Weather, Tidal Information, and Fishing Forecasts: Muskeget Island (North Side)
  • National Weather Service Wave and Marine Forecasts for Cape Cod and the Islands


• Acknowledgements: We thank our NSF Alpha colleagues, especially Glen Gawarkiewicz for providing CTD and REMUS data from the R/V Tioga and Anthony Kirincich and Siavash Ameli for providing HF Radar data in real-time. We wish to thank Matthew Pyle, Eric Rogers, Geoff DiMego, and Arun Chawla of NCEP for help and support for atmospheric forcing data, NOAA for supplying buoy data, MVCO for providing both ocean and atmospheric data, the JHU APL for providing processed SST images, and Tamara Holzwarth-Davis and Paula Fratantoni of NOAA for support for ocean historical/climatological data from NMFS.

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Data sources

• Ocean synoptic
  • WHOI Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO)
    • Data overview
    • Ocean Data (CTD and ADCP) from 12m node (current and historical)
    • Instrument locations
  • The Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP)
    • Data Access
      • Real-Time Data
  • National Data Buoy Center Real-Time & historical data from moored buoy & C-MAN stations
  • SST Images
    • Satellite Oceanography Data Lab, University of Maine
    • Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab (CBLAST region, August 2017)
    • NOAA CoastWatch HDF data
• Ocean historical/climatological
  • NOAA/NOS tidal elevation stations
    • NOS 8447930 Woods Hole, MA tides/water levels (active)
  • CO-OPS current station data (historical)
    • Buzzards Bay 2009 Current Survey Stations
      • COD0914 Quicks Hole, Middle current data (historical)
  • The Global Temperature and Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP)
    • Data Access
      • Best-Copy Data
  • Data sets & products NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information
    • World Ocean Database (WOD)
  • Northeast Fisheries Science Center Ecosystem Processes Division Oceanography Branch NMFS. Includes data from CTDs, fish hauls, hull-mounted sensors, eMOLT moorings, drifters, etc.
    • Hydrographic Conditions of the Northeast Continental Shelf Northeast Fisheries Science Center Oceanography Branch
      • yearly data files
    • Data/Mapping Interface Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Oceanography Branch
• Atmospheric forcing
  • Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Real-Time Forecasts
  • National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) products:
    • High-Resolution Window (HIRESW) (5 km resolution):
      • High-Resolution Window (HIRESW) Forecast System products
      • wgrib2 online documentation
      • Index of HIRESW GRIB records
    • North American Model (NAM) (3 km resolution):
      • North American Model (NAM) Products Inventory
      • Index of NAM GRIB records (for nowcasts)
      • Index of NAM GRIB records (for forecasts)
    • Global Forecast System Model: version 4 (GFS), at 0.5 degree resolution (GFSp5) and also at 0.25 degree resolution (GFSp25)
      • Direct link to GFSp5/GFSp25 data
      • NOMADS - NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (main page)
      • General information about the GFS model
      • Index of GFSp5/GFSp25 GRIB records
  • The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA Intrim (global Re-Analysis)
    • General information
    • Data access
  • Coupled Ocean / Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)
    • File naming convention
    • Variables
  • Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) products:
    • Real-time data
    • NAVGEM 0.5: Real-time and historical data

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